业绩预告、大股东减持与股价崩盘风险研究  

STUDY ON PERFORMANCE FORECAST, REDUCTION OF MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS AND STOCK PRICE CRASH RISK

作　　者：舒家先[1] 易苗苗 SHU Jia-xian;YI Miao-miao(Anhui University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2019年第11期68-81,共14页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(19BJL123);安徽省社科规划项目(AHSKF2018D20);安徽高校人文社科重点项目(SK2018A0443);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2018113)的资助

摘　　要：基于近年来频发的个股崩盘现象,本文运用2013—2018年上市公司的数据,对大股东减持前的业绩预告信息进行分析,探究业绩预告、大股东减持与股价崩盘风险之间的内在联系,并针对不同市场环境和股份性质进行实证检验。结果表明,上市公司倾向于在减持前公布积极业绩预告。其在一定程度上提高股价崩盘现象的发生率,在熊市和民营公司中作用更加明显,消极业绩预告影响不显著。本文的研究丰富了信息披露与股价反应的相关文献,对投资者和监管部门做出决策具有一定的启示意义。Based on the frequent stock market crash in recent years,this paper uses the data of listed companies from 2013 to 2018 to analyze the performance forecast information before the major shareholders reduce their holdings,and explore the inherent relationship between performance forecast,major shareholder reduction and stock price collapse risk.Contact and conduct empirical tests on different market environments and the nature of shares.The results show that listed companies tend to announce positive performance forecasts before the reduction,which increases the incidence of stock price crash to a certain extent,and the role in bear market and private companies is more obvious,and the negative performance forecast is not significant.The research enriches the relevant literature on information disclosure and stock price response,and has certain implications for investors and regulatory authorities to make decisions.

关 键 词：业绩预告 大股东减持 减持比例 股价崩盘风险 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]