基于历史资料的热带气旋大风定点预报及检验  

WIND GUST FORECAST AND EVALUATION FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS BASED ON HISTORICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA

作　　者：李辉 李晴岚 黄典 张蕾 李广鑫[2] 张立杰 张莉 杨悦新 LI Hui;LI Qing-lan;HUANG Dian;ZHANG Lei;LI Guang-xin;ZHANG Li-jie;ZHANG Li;YANG Yue-xin(Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau,Shenzhen 518040,China;Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenzhen 518055,China;National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen,Shenzhen 508055,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市气象局,广东深圳518040 [2]中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院,广东深圳518055 [3]国家超级计算深圳中心,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2019年第5期652-663,共12页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：深圳市基础研究布局项目（JCYJ20170413164957461）;深圳市公共技术平台建设项目（GGFW2017073114031767）共同资助

摘　　要：热带气旋是沿海地区最具破坏力的自然灾害之一。研究近海热带气旋对深圳三个重点港湾码头站的定量阵风预报。在前人研究的基础上,除了考虑热带气旋强度、热带气旋相对于气象台站的距离、方位角等热带气旋特性因素外,进一步详细分析了热带气旋尺寸对热带气旋引发重点区域的定点阵风预报影响。研究使用2014年以前的港湾码头站在热带气旋影响期间的小时极大风观测记录与各热带气旋特性因素建立预报模型,用2015—2018年的14个近海热带气旋对港湾码头站的小时极大风影响来检验预报模型的实用性。结果发现在进一步考虑了热带气旋尺寸因素对热带气旋引发定点大风影响后,预报模型可以精准地预报重点区域的最大阵风值,其预报结果可为行业气象风险评估提供有价值的参考。Tropical Cyclone(TC)is one of the most destructive natural disasters for the coastal area.This study explored quantitative forecast of wind gust induced by TCs at three important port terminal stations in Shenzhen.Based on the previous research work,this study also considered the effect of TC size on the wind gusts observed at the port terminal stations,besides the consideration of factors including TC intensity,TC distance to the station,and TC azimuth relative to the station.Historical TC data and corresponding wind gust observations at the port terminal stations before 2014 were used for model setup,and the 14 TCs which had a shortest distance less than 300 km to Shenzhen or went through the third quadrant with a distance less than 400 km were used for model evaluation.Results show that after the consideration of the TC size,the forecasting model can precisely forecast the maximum wind gust induced by TCs at designated port area.Such forecasts can provide valuable references for the industrial meteorological risk assessment.

关 键 词：热带气旋 大风 定点预报 热带气旋尺寸 

分 类 号：P445[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]