基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例  

Geopolitical Game between Great Powers Based on Geopolitics Influence Model:A Case Study of Game Between China and America on the Diaoyu Islands Issue

作　　者：刘大庆 李长军[1] 张宏 顾雨濛 刘海涛[4] 陈姮 Liu Daqing;Li Changjun;Zhang Hong;Gu Yumeng;Liu Haitao;Chen Heng(Navy Submarine Academy,Chinese People's Liberation Army,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China;College of Geographic Information,Information and Engineering University,Chinese People's Liberation Army,Zhengzhou 450002,Henan,China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;92667 Chinese People's Liberation Army Troops,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China;91206 Chinese People's Liberation Army Troops,Qingdao 266000,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军海军潜艇学院,山东青岛266000 [2]中国人民解放军信息工程大学地理空间信息学院,河南郑州450002 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [4]中国人民解放军92667部队,山东青岛266000 [5]中国人民解放军91206部队,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《地理科学》2019年第10期1663-1671,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)基金(XDA19040501);国家自然科学基金(41690145)资助~~

摘　　要：大国地缘政治博弈事关国家安全,影响世界格局。通过对地理要素的综合考量构建了地缘影响力模型,并基于博弈论建立了钓鱼岛问题大国地缘政治博弈树,对中美博弈过程进行了分析。最后针对钓鱼岛问题4种博弈走势提出了战略应对参考建议。研究结果表明:①在中国大陆主导时,各国保持合作将共赢,一旦动武,若美俄地缘战略决策指数不高,形势对中国大陆不利。②当美国地缘战略决策指数较小,俄罗斯较大时,是解决钓鱼岛问题的战略良机。③中国台湾是中国解决钓鱼岛问题的重要影响因素,要灵活把握与处理。④在4种战略博弈形势下,均存在中美战略博弈的纳什均衡,但美国、日本和中国台湾有一定概率铤而走险,要保持警惕并做好战略应对。⑤博弈分析结果较为客观的反映了钓鱼岛问题的多种战略走向,并与当前相关大国关于钓鱼岛问题的战略基本吻合,印证了地缘影响力模型对地理要素量化的可行性以及大国地缘政治博弈分析方法的合理性。Geopolitical game of superpowers affects not only national security but also the world pattern. First,the paper constructs a Geopolitical Affect Model on account of considering overall geographical factors. Next,we establish a Geopolitical Game Tree of superpowers on The Diaoyu Island issue based on Game Theory.Then, the game process between China and the US was analysed. Finally, we put forward some strategic responses to the four game trends of the Diaoyu Island issue. The research results show that, 1) When China's Mainland dominance, all countries will to be win-win. In the event of war, if the Geostrategic Decision-Making Index of U.S. and Russia is not high, the situation adverse to China's Mainland. 2) When the American Geostrategic Decision-Making Index is small but Russian is large, it is a strategic opportunity to solve the Diaoyu Island issue. 3) China need to be flexible in handling Taiwan history problem in that it is the key factor to resolve the Diaoyu Islands issue for China. 4) There is a Nash equilibrium of the strategic game between China's Mainland,US and Taiwan, China in the four game situations. However, China's Mainland should remain vigilant for US,Japan and Taiwan, China will take risks possible. 5) The game analysis results objectively reflect the various strategic trends and basically coincide with the current strategy of superpowers on the Diaoyu Island issue, confirming the feasibility of the Geopolitics Affect Model to quantify the geographical elements and the rationality of the Geopolitical Game Analysis Method of superpowers.

关 键 词：地缘政治 大国博弈 地缘影响力模型 博弈论 钓鱼岛 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]