甘肃省肃北、肃南县旱獭鼠疫疫源地旱獭及其寄生蚤数量与气象因素的关系  

The correlation of meteorological factors with the numbers of marmots and parasitic fleas in the marmot plague foci in Subei County and Sunan County of Gansu Province

作　　者：王鼎盛[1] 格鹏飞[1] 苏永强 席进孝[1] 徐大琴[1] Wang Dingsheng;Ge Pengfei;Su Yongqiang;Xi Jinxiao;Xu Daqin(Department of Plague Prevention,Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心鼠疫防制科,兰州730020

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2019年第11期873-877,共5页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：甘肃省卫生行业科研计划管理项目(GWGL2010-30)。

摘　　要：目的分析甘肃省肃北、肃南县喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫疫源地旱獭及其寄生蚤数量与气象因素的关系。方法收集甘肃省肃北、肃南县喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地1982-2016年鼠疫监测资料(来自甘肃省疾病预防控制中心),以及同期年均温度、降雨量、相对湿度等气象因素资料(来自中国气象数据共享服务网)。采用SAS 9.3软件进行旱獭密度、体蚤指数与气象因素的相关性分析;采用R2.3.2软件,分别以当年及领先1、2、3年(相对于当年作为参照的前1、2、3个年份)气象数据为自变量,旱獭密度为因变量,建立时间序列半参数广义相加模型(GAM),定量研究气象因素对鼠疫宿主(旱獭)密度影响的非线性效应关系。结果1982-2016年,甘肃省肃北县旱獭密度为0.29~6.63只/hm^2,体蚤指数范围为0.04~4.56;肃南县旱獭密度为1.22~7.92只/hm^2,体蚤指数范围为0.06~0.42。肃北县旱獭密度分别与领先1年年均降雨量、相对湿度呈正相关(r=0.43、0.36,P均<0.05),与当年及领先1、3年年均温度呈负相关(r=-0.58、-0.55、-0.41,P均<0.05);肃南县旱獭密度分别与当年相对湿度,领先1年年均降雨量、相对湿度呈正相关(r=0.36、0.57、0.43,P均<0.05)。肃北县体蚤指数与当年及领先1、2、3年年均温度呈负相关(r=-0.57、-0.43、-0.31、-0.37,P均<0.05);肃南县体蚤指数与当年及领先1、2、3年年均温度呈负相关(r=-0.71、-0.46、-0.38、-0.40,P均<0.05)。GAM结果显示,在控制其他因素的影响后,肃北县当年年均降雨量每升高1 mm,该地区旱獭密度增加0.93%;领先3年年均相对湿度每升高1%,该地区旱獭密度增加25.34%。肃南县领先3年年均降雨量每升高1 mm,该地区旱獭密度增加1.69%。结论甘肃省肃北、肃南县喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫疫源地内旱獭密度变动与降雨量和相对湿度关系密切,且影响存在不同的滞后效应;地表温度是影响寄生蚤数量变动的重要因子。Objective To investigate the correlation of meteorological factors with the numbers of marmots and parasitic fleas in the plague foci of Himalayan marmot in Subei County and Sunan County of Gansu Province.Methods The surveillance data(from Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)of natural plague foci of Subei,Sunan of Himalayan marmot from 1982 to 2016 and the meteorological factors data(from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network)such as annual average temperature,rainfall and relative humidity during the same period were collected.The correlation between marmot density,body flea index and meteorological factors were analyzed by SAS 9.3 software.Based on the meteorological data as an independent variable in current year and previous 1,2,and 3 years(relative to previous 1,2,and 3 years as the reference),the marmot density as the dependent variable,the time series semiparametric generalized additive model(GAM)was established to quantitatively study the nonlinear effect of meteorological factors on the marmot density by R2.3.2 software.Results From 1982 to 2016,the marmot density in Subei County of Gansu Province was 0.29-6.63 per hectare,and the body flea index range was 0.04-4.56;the marmot density in Sunan County of Gansu Province was 1.22-7.92 per hectare,and the body flea index range was 0.06-0.42.In Subei County,the marmot density was correlated with the previous 1 year rainfall and relative humidity,respectively(r=0.43,0.36,P<0.05),and negatively correlated with the average temperature of the year and the previous 1,3 years(r=-0.58,-0.55,-0.41,P<0.05).In Sunan County,the marmot density was correlated with the relative humidity of the year and the previous 1 year rainfall and relative humidity,respectively(r=0.36,0.57,0.43,P<0.05).In Subei County,the body flea index was negatively correlated with the average temperature of the year and the previous 1,2,3 years,respectively(r=-0.57,-0.43,-0.31,-0.37,P<0.05).In Sunan County,there was a negative correlation between the body flea in

关 键 词：旱獭属 鼠疫(耶尔森氏)杆菌 气象因素 相关性分析 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]