基于SEM的装配式建筑设计阶段风险研究  

SEM-based Research on the Risks of Prefabricated Buildings at the Design Stage

作　　者：刘喆[1] 刘娜 周瑞 董坤 LIU Zhe;LIU Na;ZHOU Rui;DONG Kun(School of Economics and Management,Jilin Architecture And Civil Engineering Institute,Changchun 130118,China;School of Management Engineering,Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan 250101,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学经济与管理学院,吉林长春130118 [2]山东建筑大学管理工程学院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2019年第5期40-44,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：吉林省软科学研究项目(20190601070FG)

摘　　要：装配式建筑设计阶段的成果直接影响后续构件的生产和施工质量,为有效解决设计阶段风险所造成的项目进度、成本、质量问题,从装配式建筑设计—生产—施工全过程角度出发,对装配式建筑设计阶段风险进行定量分析与定性评价,通过文献整理方法识别出该阶段主要风险并发放调查问卷,利用所获取的有效数据构建结构方程模型(SEM)进行分析评价。研究结果表明,装配式建筑成本受设计阶段风险影响较为显著,且主要来自于技术风险,设计—生产—安装各环节间缺少协同管理平台、构件划分不合理等是设计阶段率先考虑的风险因素。并提出该阶段发展建议,为装配式建筑可持续发展提供参考。The performance of prefabricated buildings at design stage directly affects the quality of onsite construction.To effectively solve the problems regarding project schedule,cost and quality that are caused by the risks at the design stage,this study conducts both quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the risk of prefabricated buildings from the perspective of the design-production-construction process of prefabricated buildings.The main risks at this stage are identified through a literature review and questionnaire survey.The structural equation modeling(SEM)method is used for data analysis and risk evaluation.The results show that the cost of prefabricated buildings is affected by the risks at the design stage,and it mainly stems from technical risks.The lack of collaborative management platform between design and production-installation and the unreasonable division of components are the primary risk factors considered at the design stage.Finally,based on the analysis results,the development recommendations are proposed to provide reference for the sustainable development of prefabricated buildings.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 设计阶段 结构方程模型 风险评价 

分 类 号：TU201[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]