2019年10月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, October 2019

作　　者：涂文校[1] 马宁[2] 黄晓霞[3] 彭质斌[4] 黎丹[1] 王霄晔 孟玲[1] 向妮娟[1] 刘东山[5] Tu Wenxiao;Ma Ning;Huang Xiaoxia;Peng Zhibin;Li Dan;Wang Xiaoye;Meng Ling;Xiang Nijuan;Liu Dongshan(Public Health Emergency Center^Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China;National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Office for Public Health Management,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心,北京102206 [2]北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京100013 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,北京102206 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,北京102206 [5]中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生管理处,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2019年第10期872-876,共5页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2019年10月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计10月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较9月继续上升,但规模可能低于前3年10月的平均水平。国庆期间北京市需重点关注流行性感冒(流感)等急性呼吸道传染病、诺如病毒病等肠道传染病,以及登革热、疟疾、中东呼吸综合征、埃博拉病毒病等输入性传染病。我国媒介伊蚊分布地区处于登革热高发期,本地传播地区和病例可能将继续增多。流感目前处于低流行态势,为了迎接即将到来的流感活动季节,建议各地提前做好流感疫苗接种工作。食物中毒10月将逐渐下降。刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情仍将持续发生,但输入我国的风险低。2019年我国公民在国庆假期旅行时,境内游需关注登革热、诺如病毒病、霍乱、季节性流感等传染病疫情以及食物中毒的风险,出境游需关注登革热、霍乱、埃博拉病毒病、寨卡病毒病、黄热病和中东呼吸综合征等传染病疫情的风险。结论需要对国庆活动期间的公共卫生风险、登革热予以重点关注,对季节性流感、食物中毒、国庆假期旅行卫生和刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病予以一般关注。Objective To assess the risks of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in October 2019.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in October than in September 2019,but it might be lower than the average of same period in previous three years.During the National Day vacation and in Beijing,close attention needs to be paid to influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases,norovirus diseases and other enteral infectious diseases,imported infectious diseases such as dengue fever,malaria,Middle East Respiratory Syndrome(MERS)and Ebola virus disease(EVD).It is the high-incidence season of dengue fever in the area where Aedes exists,and local transmission would continue.Influenza activity level is low now,and it is suggested to strengthen the influenza vaccination before influenza season.Food poisoning incidence would decline in October.EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo would continue,but the risk of spread to China is low.During 7-day vacation of the National Day,Chinese citizens should pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases,such as dengue fever,cholera,seasonal influenza,and food poisoning in domestic travel and the risk of dengue fever,cholera,cholera,EVD,Zika virus disease,yellow fever and MERS in international travel.Conclusion Close attention should be paid to the public health risk during the National Day vaccination and dengue fever,and general attention should be paid to seasonal influenza,food poisoning,travel related health risk and EVD in Democratic Republic of Congo.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]