我国经济增长、能源消费和CO2排放的投入产出多目标优化  

Multi-objective optimization of input and output of China’s economic growth,energy consumption and CO2 emissions

作　　者：陈郭石 周丁琳 李爱军[1] Chen Guoshi;Zhou Dinglin;Li Aijun(School of Energy and Power Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学能源与动力工程学院

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2019年第10期4-14,共11页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目（18ZDA050）;中欧清洁与可再生能源学院双一流研究生教学平台培育基金（ICARE-RP-2018-ZD-001）

摘　　要：基于新常态下中国经济高质量发展的要求以及国家控制CO2排放的中长期目标,开发了一个动态投入产出多目标优化模型,对2020-2050年期间我国经济增长、能源消费和CO2排放进行预测。该模型的目标函数是对研究期间GDP累计的最大化和CO2排放总量的最小化,制约条件是产业的动态投入产出平衡、能源消耗、规划期间内的GDP平均增速等。根据经济发展模式和碳减排力度共设立了9种情景,包括常规发展、一般高质量发展和强化高质量发展3种经济发展模式下的3种碳减排情景(基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景)。研究结果表明:提高行业增加值率、合理调整产业结构、提高能耗利用效率是实现高质量经济发展、降低能耗和CO2减排目标的重要措施。Based on the requirements of high-quality development of China’s economy under the new normal and the medium and long-term goals of national control of CO2 emissions,a dynamic input-output multi-objective optimization model was developed to forecast China’s economic growth,energy consumption and CO2 emissions during 2020-2050. The objective function of the model is to maximize the cumulative GDP and minimize the total CO2 emissions during the study period. The constraints are the dynamic input-output balance of the industry,energy consumption,and the average GDP growth rate during the planning period. According to the economic development model and carbon emission reduction,nine scenarios have been set up,including three kinds of carbon emission reduction scenarios under the three economic development modes: conventional development,general high-quality development and enhanced high-quality development(baseline scenario,low carbon scenario and strengthen the low carbon scenario). The research results show that improving the industry’s value-added rate,rationally adjusting the industrial structure,and improving energy efficiency are important measures to achieve high-quality economic development,reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission reduction targets.

关 键 词：GDP CO2排放 多目标优化 低碳发展 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]