中国与“一带一路”国家的服务贸易效率及潜力分析——基于时变随机前沿引力模型  

Analysis of the Efficiency and Potential of Service Trade between China and the "Belt and Road" Countries——Based on Time-varying Stochastic Frontal Gravitational Model

作　　者：万红先[1] 冯婷婷[1] WAN Hong-xian;FENG Ting-ting

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《生产力研究》2019年第10期1-7,I0002,共8页Productivity Research

基　　金：安徽省级质量工程“省级名师工作室”(2015msgzs137);安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2016A0019);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2017068)

摘　　要：文章在多维距离视角下,选取2000-2018年间的面板数据,采用时变随机前沿引力模型对我国与"一带一路"国家的服务贸易潜力进行了实证分析。结果显示:双方的经济规模、贸易伙伴国的人口数量、服务业增加值占GDP的比重和经济自由度水平以及双方签订区域服务贸易协定等因素对于双方服务贸易流量的提升有明显的促进作用,而中国人口数量、双方的地理距离等因素则在一定程度上抑制了双方服务贸易规模的进一步扩大。总体来说,中国与"一带一路"国家间的服务贸易效率仍处于较低水平,双方的服务贸易潜力仍有较大的释放和提升空间。Based on the multi-dimensional distance perspective, this paper selects the panel data from 2000 to 2018 and uses the time-varying stochastic frontal gravity model to empirically analyze the service trade potential between China and the "Belt and Road" countries. The results show that the economic scale of the two sides, the population of the trading partners, the proportion of the added value of the service industry to the GDP and the level of economic freedom, as well as the signing of regional service trade agreements between the two sides have significantly promoted the increase of the service trade flows between the two sides. The factors such as the population of China and the geographical distance between the two sides have inhibited the further expansion of the scale of service trade between the two sides to a certain extent. In general, the efficiency of service trade between China and the "Belt and Road" countries is still at a relatively low level, and the service trade potential of both sides still has a large release and room for improvement.

关 键 词：“一带一路”国家 服务贸易效率 服务贸易潜力 时变随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F740.47[经济管理—国际贸易]