京津冀生态化路径的差异化与协同效应研究——基于STIRPAT模型行业动态面板数据的GMM分析  

Differentiation Ecologization Evolution and Synergy Effects of Industrial Structure for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regions

作　　者：杨森 许平祥[2] 白兰[3] Yang Sen;Xu Pingxiang;Bai Lan(Fictitious Economic Research and Management Center,Nankai University,Tianjin 300017,China;School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China;School of Business,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071001,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学虚拟经济与管理研究中心,天津300017 [2]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134 [3]河北农业大学商学院,保定071001

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2019年第12期84-92,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“双重关系嵌入对产业集群内新创企业创新绩效的影响研究”(项目编号:TJLJ17-004)

摘　　要：本文基于投入产出碳排放的测算,发现京津冀碳排放的行业分布集中且存在重叠现象,但碳结构差异性较大。利用STIRPAT的扩展模型,使用京津冀行业的动态面板数据,发现京津冀生态化与规模、技术、结构和政策效应高度相关;然而,河北重组效应显著,天津主要是能源结构的优化,而北京则更多为结构升级效应。另外,北京和天津对河北存在显著的负向溢出效应,反之不成立;而北京和天津之间互为正向溢出。鉴于此,京津冀一体化背景下,其生态化调整既要考虑差异性,也要认识正向溢出的联动效应。Basing on input-output estimation of carbon emissions show that the key industries of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are concentrated and similar,but the carbon structural differences are equally large.Consumer industries contribute the mainly carbon emissions of Beijing and Tianjin is mainly from the productive industries.However,there are great differences in the development stage and the factor endowment of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regions,so it also presents different adjustment path in the process of low carbonization.STIRPAT’s dynamic model shows that technology,structure,policy and economies of scale is highly correlated in the process of industrial structure ecology.However,the reorganization effect of Hebei’s industrial structure ecology is remarkable.Tianjin mainly relys on industrial energy structure optimization,and Beijing is more performance for the economic structure of the advanced upgrade effect.In addition,Beijing and Tianjin have a significant negative spillover effect on Hebei,and vice versa.On the other hand,Beijing and Tianjin have positive spillovers between each other.Therefore,in the process of ecological adjustment of industrial structure under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration,it is necessary to consider the differences,and also to recognize the positive spillover linkage.

关 键 词：生态化路径 STIRPAT模型 溢出效应 协同效应 碳排放 京津冀一体化 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F127