基于模糊实物期权的燃煤电厂CCS投资决策研究  

Research on CCS Investment Decision of Coal-fired Power Plant Based on Fuzzy Real Option

作　　者：王喜平[1] 赵齐 谭锡崇 李艳梅[1] 张宁宁 Wang Xiping;Zhao Qi;Tan Xichong;Li Yanmei;Zhang Ningning(Department of Economic Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济管理系

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2019年第12期148-155,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目“基于共享经济模式的雄安新区综合能源利用体系研究”(项目编号:HB19YJ011)

摘　　要：为突破传统实物期权在CCS投资决策中未考虑非随机不确定性的不足,本文将三角模糊数和二叉树期权模型相结合,构建CCS投资决策的模糊实物期权模型框架,并通过实证分析对模型和判断规则进行可靠性验证。研究表明:(1)模糊实物期权框架下的CCS投资价值受到左展形α、右展形β和置信水平γ的影响;(2)当0≤γ≤0.68时,投资决策需要考虑投资者的个人主观因素。该方法更适应于灵活多变的投资环境,尤其是像CCS投资这种政策依赖性强的商业活动。对于无法用随机性刻画的不确定性因素,投资者可以根据风险偏好、管理经验和内外部消息对未来进行合理预估,从而提高投资决策的准确性和有效性。In order to break through the shortcomings of non-random uncertainty in CCS investment decision-making,the triangular fuzzy number and binary tree option model are combined to construct a fuzzy real option model framework for CCS investment decision,and the model and judgment are judged through empirical analysis.The rules are verified for reliability.The research shows that:(1)the value of CCS investment under the fuzzy real option framework is affected by left-form α,right-form β and confidence level γ;(2)when 0≤γ≤0.68,investment decision needs to consider investors personal subjective factors.This approach is more adaptable to a flexible investment environment,especially for policy-dependent business activities like CCS investment.For uncertainties that cannot be characterized by randomness,investors can make reasonable estimates of the future based on risk appetite,management experience and internal and external news,thus improving the accuracy and effectiveness of investment decisions.

关 键 词：模糊实物期权 燃煤电厂 CCS 二叉树定价模型 投资收益 柔性管理 

分 类 号：F406.7[经济管理—产业经济] F426.61