“一带一路”背景下人民币汇率变动对中国对外贸易的非对称影响研究  

Research on Asymmetric Effect of RMB Exchange Rate on Chinese Foreign Trade under the Background of “Belt and Road” Initiative

作　　者：潘慧[1] 崔冉 温雪 Pan Hui;Cui Ran;Wen Xue(School of Economics and Trade*Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003.P.R.China;School of Finance*Southwest University of Finance and Economics*Chengdu 611130,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院经济与贸易学院,南宁530003 [2]西南财经大学金融学院,成都611130

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2019年第6期77-85,共9页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大研究专项“陆海经济一体化与我国南海权益维护研究”(18VHQ013)

摘　　要：利用中国与"一带一路"沿线21个主要贸易伙伴1993年至2017年的季度数据,使用非对称的自回归分布滞后模型(NARDL)对人民币双边实际汇率变动对双边贸易差额的影响进行了分析。研究发现:首先,人民币汇率变动与双边贸易差额之间存在协整关系,无论短期还是长期人民币汇率变动对双边贸易差额都存在"非对称性"影响;其次,人民币升值会恶化中国与英国、德国、荷兰、中国台湾、菲律宾和越南的贸易收支,而贬值仅改善中国与法国的贸易收支;最后,马歇尔-勒纳条件仅在中国与法国、中国台湾和泰国的双边贸易中成立,中国与比利时、意大利、伊朗、俄罗斯、韩国、中国台湾、中国香港、澳大利亚、新加坡、泰国、菲律宾、马来西亚和印度的贸易存在J曲线效应。In this paper, using the quarterly data and the 21 major trading partners along with "Belt and Road Initiative" from 1993 to 2017, the non-symmetric autoregressive distributed lag model(NARDL) is used to analyze the effect of RMB bilateral real exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balance. Firstly, there is a co-integration relationship between the exchange rate of RMB exchange rate and bilateral trade balance. Both short-term and long-term RMB exchange rate changes have an "asymmetric" effect on bilateral trade differences. Secondly, the appreciation of RMB will deteriorate China and the UK, Germany, Holland, Taiwan(China), Philippines and Vietnam. In the end, Marshall-Lerner conditions were only established in China’s bilateral trade with France, Taiwan(China) and Thailand. There was a j-curve effect in China’s trade with Belgium, Italy, Iran, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan(China), Hong Kong(China), Australia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and India.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 人民币汇率 马歇尔-勒纳条件 J曲线 非对称性 

分 类 号：C[社会学]