煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测方法的研究  

Research on prediction method of gas emission in coal mine

作　　者：程波[1,2] 颜文学 杨亮 何显能 Cheng Bo;Yan Wenxue;Yang Liang;He Xianneng(National Key Laboratory of Gas Disaster Monitoring and Emergency Technology,Shapingba,Chongqing 400037,China;China Coal Science&Engineering Group Chongqing Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shapingba,Chongqing 400037,China)

机构地区：[1]瓦斯灾害监控与应急技术国家重点实验室,重庆市沙坪坝区400037 [2]中煤科工集团重庆研究院有限公司,重庆市沙坪坝区400037

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2019年第11期63-67,共5页China Coal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(51774319)

摘　　要：瓦斯涌出量预测是煤矿编制瓦斯抽采规划与通风方案的基础。评述了现行瓦斯涌出量预测方法的标准,重点就近年来发展形成的基于煤层瓦斯流动理论、数学地质模型与趋势预测的涌出量预测方法理论进行了系统的梳理;从目前的算例来分析,该理论在定性层面上能够捕捉到各主要因素对煤矿瓦斯涌出量的影响,但这些预测结果定量上尚需进一步开展大规模的现场验证。目前,随着煤层瓦斯运移机理研究的逐步深入,还需要在煤层瓦斯流动特征与动态数据趋势预测相结合的求解算法方面开展更加深入的研究。The prediction of gas emission was the basis of gas drainage and ventilation plan.First of all,the current standards of gas emission prediction methods were reviewed,and the emission prediction methods based on coal seam gas flow theory,mathematical geological model and trend prediction developed in recent years were systemically combed.From the current calculation example,the theory could capture the influence of main factors on the gas emission of coal mine on the qualitative level,but these prediction results still needed further large-scale field verification.At present,with the gradual deepening of the research on the mechanism of coal seam gas migration,more in-depth research needed to be carried out on the algorithm of combining the characteristics of coal seam gas flow with the trend prediction of dynamic data.

关 键 词：瓦斯涌出量 预测方法 煤层瓦斯流动理论 瓦斯地质方法 矿山统计法 分源预测法 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]