20世纪中期以来不同时段黄河年输沙量对水土保持的响应  

The response of annual sediment transport in the Yellow River to soil and water conservation in different periods since the middle of the 20th century

作　　者：李敏[1] 朱清科 LI Min;ZHU Qingke(Upper and Middle Yellow River Bureau,Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,710021,Xi'an,China;Engineering Research Center of Forestry Ecological Engineering Ministry of Education,Beijing Forestry University,100083,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部黄河水利委员会黄河上中游管理局,西安710021 [2]北京林业大学林业生态工程教育部工程研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2019年第5期1-8,共8页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

摘　　要：黄河年输沙量作为黄河中游黄土高原地区水土流失的载体,在水土流失治理薄弱状态下平均约16亿t/a。截止2015年黄河中游黄土高原地区水土流失综合治理措施保存面积达到26万km^2,治理程度超过62%。黄河(龙门、华县、河津、状头) 4站年输沙量之和已有10余年不到5亿t/a,最少年份不到1亿t/a。当前国家把黄河流域黄土高原地区的保护与治理作为重大战略举措,因此,研究黄河年输沙量对水土保持的响应特性与响应程度具有重要的现实意义。笔者选取22个降雨因子和水土流失治理度因子,采用回归分析方法,对1954-2015年黄河4站年输沙量分3个时段进行统计分析。计算结果:1) 1954-1966年时段,仅“河吴区间7-8月降雨量”1个因子可以“解释”该时段年输沙量78%的变化;2) 1967-1987年时段,逐步回归筛选出了由水土流失治理度和3个降雨因子组成的非线性回归模型;3) 1988-2015年时段,仅由“水土流失治理度”1个因子就能够“解释”黄河年输沙量近80%的变化。3个时段计算结果的变化表明,随着水土流失治理度的增加,黄河4站年输沙量对水土保持的响应从不明显到显著。其中:20世纪60年代以前黄河年输沙量对水土保持响应不敏感;20世纪60-80年代,水土保持减少黄河年输沙量的作用显现,黄河年输沙量对水土流失治理程度有所响应,水土流失治理度是造成黄河年输沙量波动递减的主要因子;20世纪80年代中期以后,水土保持减少黄河年输沙量的作用十分显著,黄河年输沙量对水土流失治理程度响应强烈,在水土流失治理度超过60%时,以95%的置信度,黄河年输沙量小于6亿t/a;近期水土保持对黄河年输沙量的减沙量超过10亿t/a。[Background]The annual sediment transport in the Yellow River is the expression carrier for soil erosion on the Loess Plateau of the middle reaches of the Yellow River,with an average of 1.6×10^9 t/year in weak soil erosion control.As of 2015,the comprehensive management measures of soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau of the middle reaches of the Yellow River reached 260000 km2,and the degree of governance exceeded 62%.The annual sediment transport volume of the Yellow River has not exceeded 5×10^8 t/year in more than 10 years,and the minimum volume of the annual sediment transport is<10^8 t/year.At present,China takes the protection and management of the Loess Plateau area in the Yellow River basin as an important strategic measure,therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the response characteristics and degree of annual sediment transport in the Yellow River to soil and water conservation.[Methods]22 rainfall factors and soil erosion control factors were selected,and regression analysis was used and the statistical analysis of the annual sediment transport of the Yellow River in 1954 to 2015 was conducted in three periods.[Results]1)From 1954-1966,only a factor of“July to August rainfall in Hekouzhen-Wubao section”“interpreted”the change of the annual sediment transport of the Yellow River by 78%.2)During the period from 1967 to 1987,a nonlinear regression model composed of soil erosion control degree and three rainfall factors were selected by stepwise regression.3)From 1988 to 2015,a factor of“controlled percentage of soil erosion”solely“interpreted”the change of the annual sediment transport of the Yellow River by nearly 80%.The changes of the calculated results in the three periods indicated that the response of annual sediment transport amount to soil and water conservation in the four stations of the Yellow River was from not obvious to significant with the increase of soil erosion control degree.Among them,before 1960s,the annual sediment transport of the Ye

关 键 词：年输沙量 泥沙 黄土高原 水土保持 减沙 黄河 

分 类 号：S157[农业科学—土壤学]