通货膨胀对寿险保费收入的影响分析  

Impact of Inflation on Life Insurance Premium Income

作　　者：闫庆悦 王文娇 石印 褚吉威 YAN Qingyue;WANG Wenjiao;SHI Yin;CHU Jiwei(School of Insurance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学保险学院

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2019年第6期46-53,共8页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划项目“山东省企业职工基本养老保险基金中长期平衡的精算研究”(18BJJJ08)

摘　　要：寿险经营易受通货膨胀的冲击,探究寿险保费与通货膨胀之间的关系,有利于中国寿险业的持续健康发展。采用2009-2018年的月度数据,利用多元线性回归模型及门槛回归模型,从线性和非线性两方面考查了中国寿险原保险保费收入与通货膨胀之间的关系。研究发现:从线性模型来看,在整个样本考察期内,通货膨胀对于寿险的保费呈现负效应。从两区制门槛回归模型来看,不同的通货膨胀水平对寿险保费的影响方向和影响程度有所不同。通货膨胀在0.92%处对寿险保费的影响出现了结构突变现象。在较低的通胀水平甚至是通货紧缩状态下,其对寿险的保费呈现正效应;而在通胀水平较高时才会呈现负效应。因此,应当关注高通胀对寿险保费造成的不利影响,采取寿险产品创新、控制物价水平等方式应对通货膨胀的冲击。Life insurance operation is vulnerable to the impact of inflation, and exploring the relationship between life insurance premium and inflation is conducive to the sustained and healthy development of China life insurance industry. By using the monthly data from 2009 to 2018, this study examines the relationship between premium income and inflation in China life insurance from both linear and non-linear perspectives by adopting multiple linear regression model and threshold regression model. It is found that from the perspective of linear model, inflation has a negative effect on life insurance premium throughout the sample survey period;from the perspective of the two-zone threshold regression model, the impact direction and degree of different inflation levels on life insurance premium are different;the impact of inflation at 0.92% on life insurance premium shows a structural mutation;and that at a lower inflation level or even deflation, the impact of inflation on life insurance premium shows a positive effect while at a higher inflation level it shows a negative effect. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the adverse effects of high inflation on life insurance premium and cope with the impact of inflation by way of innovating life insurance products and controlling price levels.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 寿险 原保费收入 门槛回归 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]