俄美的核力量、核战略与核谈判  

The Nuclear Force, Nuclear Strategy and Nuclear Negotiation between Russia and the U. S.

作　　者：韩克敌[1] Han Kedi

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2019年第6期1-16,148,共17页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：2019年8月2日,美俄先后正式宣布退出《中导条约》,《新削减战略武器条约》2021年到期后也可能终止。国际军控体系濒临瓦解,俄美已经实质性地开始了新一轮军备竞赛。俄美核力量总体平衡,在某些方面美国略占优势。俄美核战略都追求压倒性的核优势,奉行先发制人的战略。俄美都希望将第三方拉入核及导弹谈判进程。如果达不到这个目标,俄美有可能试图达成一个修改版的《中导条约》,限制欧洲的导弹部署,放开亚洲的导弹部署。中国面临的总体战略安全环境不容乐观。On August 2,2019,the U. S. and Russia successively announced their withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty may also be terminated after its expiration in 2021. Hence,the international arms control system is on the verge of collapse,and Russia and the U. S. have substantively started a new round of arms race. The nuclear force of Russia and US are generally balanced,but in some respects the U. S. edges out Russia. The nuclear strategies of the two countries,which aim at overwhelming superiority,are featured by the pre-emptive policy. Both Russia and the U. S. hope to pull a third party into the nuclear and missile negotiations. If this goal is not met,Russia and the United States may try to reach a revised version of the "Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty",wherein to place more restrains on the missile deployment in Europe,and loosen the missile deployment in Asia. Therefore,the overall strategic security environment facing China is not optimistic.

关 键 词：俄美关系 核武器 核战略 核谈判 军备竞赛 中俄美关系 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]