地震预警系统中利用P_d估测PGV的改进方法  

Improved Method of Estimating PGV Using P_d for Earthquake Early Warning

作　　者：刘辰 李小军[2,3] 景冰冰[2] 尹建明 郭星 周越 LIU Chen;LI Xiaojun;JING Bingbing;YIN Jianming;GUO Xing;ZHOU Yue(Postdoctoral workstation of China Reinsurance(Group)Corporation,Beijing 100033,China;The College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100081,China;China Property and Casualty Reinsurance Company LTD,Beijing 100033,China;Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center,Beijing 100082,China)

机构地区：[1]中国再保险(集团)股份有限公司博士后工作站,北京100033 [2]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124 [3]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081 [4]中国财产再保险有限责任公司,北京100033 [5]环境保护部核与辐射安全中心,北京100082

出　　处：《地震研究》2019年第4期608-615,I0004,共9页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：科技部重点研发项目——地震保险损失评估模型及应用研究(2018YFC1504600);国家自然科学基金联合基金项目——高速铁路地震监测、预警理论与方法研究(U1434210);国家自然科学基金创新群体项目——重大工程结构抗震与减震控制(51421005)联合资助

摘　　要：针对传统的PGV-P d统计关系进行地震预警时会低估大地震PGV的问题,提出利用P d估测PGV的改进方法。采用汶川地震余震芦山地震主余震及日本熊本地震主余震事件的共314组强地震动记录,进行PGV-P d关系的统计,得到统计关系A;结合统计关系A,利用中国台湾集集地震主震、汶川地震主震163组强地震动记录得到统计关系B和C。与前人的结果进行对比并进行残差分析后认为:统计关系C比B能给出更好的高P d分段估测结果,建议应用PGV-P d方法时,当P d达到一定阈值时,以统计关系A来提供一般PGV估测值,同时以统计关系C来提供高PGV的估测值。Referring to PGV underestimation of great earthquake by PGV-P d relation during earthquake early warning,we proposed an improved method of estimating PGV using P d.Based on 314 strong ground motion records of the Wenchuan aftershocks,the Lushan earthquake and its aftershocks,the Kumamoto earthquake and its aftershocks,a 3s-10s time window of the relationship between displacement amplitude P d and peak velocity PGV of earthquake is analyzed.Comparing the analysis results with 163 sets of strong ground motion records of the Chi-Chi earthquake and the Wenchuan earthquake,we presents a method for PGV estimation by P d.When P d is greater than a set threshold,two kinds of estimating results,high and general,are given for reference to users and automatic judging systems,and two schemes are designed to give the overestimation results.Through comparison among our relations and previous studies,as well as residual analysis of our relations,we come to the conclusion of a high and general estimation suggestion.

关 键 词：地震预警 P d方法 PGV估测 强地震动记录 

分 类 号：P315.914[天文地球—地震学]