中国车用燃料乙醇流向与产业时空布局分析  

Flow Trend and Industrial Space Time Layout of Motor Fuels Ethanol in China

作　　者：陈曦[1] 潘克西[1] 李玥宁 李永浮[2] 张配豪 Chen Xi;Pan Kexi;Li Yuening;Li Yongfu;Zhang Peihao(Fudan University;Shanghai University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学 [2]上海大学

出　　处：《上海节能》2019年第11期876-885,共10页Shanghai Energy Saving

摘　　要：在系统分析我国近20年来的车用燃料乙醇生产、汽油消费,以及玉米生产等发展状况的基础上,就我国乙醇汽油未来可能的场景设置了高、中、低三种情景,运用地理信息系统(GIS)等时空分析方法,模拟、仿真车用燃料乙醇生产企业选点及其供应区域。研究表明:短期内,玉米仍将是我国燃料乙醇生产的最主要原料,但由于玉米主产地与汽油主消费地在空间上的严重背离,建议不应对玉米等粮食乙醇设定过高的产量目标;纤维素乙醇受生产技术和工艺等因素制约,中短期内依然难以独立承担相关区域乙醇全覆盖的需求;煤基合成气来源充足,但鉴于环境治理的要求,建议应该严格控制生产规模,仅作为石油短缺的战略技术储备,在严格限定的区域内进行技术维新和运营维护。建议尽快布局乙醇汽车的全产业链协同发展及其配套的售后服务体系,研究制定全国统一、因地制宜、分工明确的乙醇汽车发展路线图。The article systematically analyzes motor fuels ethanol production,gasoline consumption and development conditions of corn production in recent 20 years in China.According to future possible scenarios of ethanol gasoline(high,middle,low level),the author uses GIS space time analysis method to simulate motor fuels ethanol production enterprise site selection and supply area.The study shows that in short term corn is still main raw materials for fuels ethanol production in China,but it’s better not to set too high production target for corn ethanol due to serious space deviation of corn production area with gasoline consumption.Production technology and process constraints cellulosic ethanol,which is difficult to independently undertake full ethanol coverage as demand.Meanwhile coal-based syngas has sufficient source to work as strategic technology reserve as oil shortage due to environmental protection requirements.The author suggests that we should hurry up to carry out coordinated development of whole ethanol motor industrial chain and supporting after-sales service system to draw up national unity,local-oriented with clear working divisions for ethanol motor development roadmap.

关 键 词：乙醇 汽油 玉米 数据分析 时空分析 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]