人口老龄化扩大区域经济增长差距了吗？——基于经济增长收敛模型的研究  

Has the Aging of Population Expanded the Regional Economic Growth Gap? A Research Based on the Convergence Model of Economic Growth

作　　者：宋晓莹 赵春燕 SONG Xiaoying;ZHAO Chunyan(Development Institute,Yunnan University,Kunming 650000,China;School of Economics,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学发展研究院,云南昆明650000 [2]云南财经大学经济学院,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2019年第6期101-110,共10页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71963034);云南省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(ZD201607)

摘　　要：基于2000—2017年省际面板数据,将人口老龄化引入经济增长收敛模型,采用SYS-GMM方法分析人口老龄化对我国区域间以及区域内经济增长差距的影响。研究结果表明:人口老龄化缩小了我国区域间经济增长差距,且与经济增长之间呈"倒U型"关系;在老龄化水平已跨过拐点的东部地区,老龄化对经济增长的效应为负,但对区域内经济增长差距的影响不大,而在未跨过拐点的中西部地区,老龄化对经济增长的总效应为正且缩小了区域内经济增长差距。在将来,随着我国中西部地区老龄化进程的加快,其对经济增长的负向影响可能会导致区域间经济增长差距的进一步扩大。Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017,this paper introduces the factor of population aging into the convergence model of economic growth,and uses the SYS-GMM method to analyze the impact of aging on the inter-regional and intra-regional economic growth gap in China. The results show that the aging of population has narrowed the gap in economic growth between regions and has an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth. The sub-regional study further illustrates that in the eastern region where the level of aging has crossed the inflection point,the effect of the aging on economic growth is negative,but the effect on the regional economic growth gap is small. In the central and western regions where the level of aging has not crossed the inflection point,the total effect of aging on economic growth is positive and has narrowed the economic growth gap within its area. In the future,with the rapid development of the aging in the central and western regions,its negative impact on economic growth will be inevitable,which may lead to the further expansion of the inter-regional economic growth gap in China.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 区域经济增长 经济增长收敛模型 SYS-GMM 劳动力流动 收入差距 政府财政支出 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]