武汉市城市化发展对气候变化影响研究  

Influence Mechanism of Urbanization Development of Wuhan City on Climate Change

作　　者：张俊[1] 游致远 俞文政[1] ZHANG Jun;YOU Zhi-yuan;YU Wen-zheng(School of Applied Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;Yangzhou Meteorological Bureau,Yangzhou 225009,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044 [2]扬州市气象局,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2019年第6期89-95,共7页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41375160);江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2010JDXM027)

摘　　要：根据武汉市1966-2015年的气候数据资料及统计年鉴资料,使用线性趋势分析法、滑动平均法、MK和MTT突变检验法对武汉市50 a气候进行分析,选取5个城市化指标,建立城市化指数模型并与气象要素做相关拟合分析。结果表明,武汉市50 a的年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温呈上升趋势,相对湿度、日照时数呈下降趋势,降水量变化不显著;年平均气温、极端最低气温、相对湿度、日照时数突变年份分别为1983、1980、1994、1988年。城市化指数与年平均气温、极端最低气温呈显著正相关,与相对湿度、日照时数呈显著负相关,与极端最高气温和降水量无明显相关性。城市化指数与年平均气温拟合曲线的拟合程度较高,说明城市化发展对年平均气温影响较大。According to the climate data and the data from the statistical yearbooks of Wuhan City from 1966 to 2015,by using linear trend analysis,moving average method,MK and MTT mutation test were used to analyze the climate of the city in the past 50 years.Five urbanization indicators were selected to set up urbanization index model that was used to carry out fitting analysis with meteorological elements.The results showed that Wuhan City's annual average,extreme maximum and extreme minimum temperatures were increasing in the past 50 years,and the relative humidity and sunshine hours were decreasing and the changes of precipitation were not significant.The annual mean,extreme minimum,and relative humidity as well as sunshine duration changed significantly in 1983,1980,1994,and 1988,respectively.There was a significant positive correlation between urbanization index and annual mean temperature and extreme minimum temperature,which was negatively correlated with relative humidity and sunshine duration,and had no significant correlation with extreme maximum temperature and precipitation.The degree of fitting of urbanization index and annual mean temperature fitting curve was high,which indicated that urbanization had a great influence on average temperature.

关 键 词：武汉 气候变化 城市化 相关性 

分 类 号：S718.512[农业科学—林学]