高质量发展背景下现代服务业经济增收效应研究——基于重庆市的实证分析  

Research on the Effect of Economic Growth of Modern Service Industry under the Background of High Quality Development:Based on the Empirical Analysis of Chongqing City

作　　者：张荣博 杨加吉 黄潇[1] ZHANG Rongbo;YANG Jiaji;HUANG Xiao(Economic Research Center of upper Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Nanan Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心

出　　处：《重庆文理学院学报（社会科学版）》2019年第6期42-56,共15页Journal of Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences（Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学重点研究基地项目“收入不平等与房价的作用机制及调节政策研究”（18SKJD028）;重庆工商大学重点科学研究平台项目“空间视角下西部地区城市群结构演变及其经济效应研究”（1652018）;重庆市研究生创新型项目“环境规制下长江经济带创新效率评价及提升路径研究”（CYS18332）;重庆工商大学研究生创新型科学研究项目“转型背景下现代服务业高质量发展评价及优化路径研究”（yjscxx2019-101-33）

摘　　要：现代服务业的高质量发展在一定程度上决定着当前阶段我国社会主义现代化水平,这是未来一定时期内实现经济发展和产业转型升级的关键引擎。通过择取1996-2017年全国层面的平衡面板数据,基于双重差分法和合成控制法对现代服务业综合政策在重庆市产生的经济增长效应做出合理化评价。实证结果表明:整体而言,现代服务业综合政策对重庆市产生明显经济增收效应。随着时间的推移,这种增收效应具有显著促进作用,但其通过政策红利动力驱动而产生的边际效应却趋于弱化。为解决内生性问题,通过进行一系列安慰剂检验,确保结论的稳健可靠。The high-quality development of modern service industry determines the level of socialist modernization in China at a certain stage,and has become a key engine for realizing the new normal of economic development and industrial transformation in the future.Through the selection of the national-level balance panel data from 1996 to 2017,based on the DID method and the synthetic control method,the economic growth effect of the policy implementation in Chongqing is rationalized.The empirical results show that:on the whole,the implementation of the comprehensive policy of modern service industry has produced obvious economic growth effect on Chongqing.With the passage of time,the effect of increasing income still has a significant and sustained promoting effect,but its marginal effect driven by the policy dividend power tends to become weakened.In order to solve the endogenous problems,a series of placebo tests were carried out to ensure that the results were stable and reliable.

关 键 词：现代服务业 经济增长 双重倍差法 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]