基于时间序列的中超联赛球队竞技表现稳定性分析  

Time Series Based Analysis on Performance Consistency of Chinese Football Association Super League

作　　者：刘天彪[1] 徐懿凡 杨斌 白旭[3] 薛俊[4] LIU Tianbiao;XU Yifan;YANG Bin;BAI Xu(School of Sports&Exercise,Beijing Normal Univ.,Beijing 100875,China;School of Economics&Business Administration,Beijing Normal Univ.,Beijing 100875,China;College of Sports and P.E,North China Institute of Aerospace Engineering,Langfang 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学体育与运动学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100975 [3]北华航天工业学院,河北廊坊065000 [4]惠州学院体育系,广东惠州516007

出　　处：《武汉体育学院学报》2019年第11期87-94,共8页Journal of Wuhan Sports University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(18CTY011)

摘　　要：竞技状态是训练学的核心研究概念之一,其会极大地影响运动员竞技表现。竞技表现反映了竞技状态好坏,以往对此内容的研究多集中于优秀运动员个体。为了探讨集体项目中的竞技表现及其影响因素,选择中超联赛作为研究对象。中超联赛是亚洲最好的职业足球联赛之一,代表了中国职业足球的最高水平,受到广泛的关注。通过时间序列分析中的自相关函数和互相关函数对足球比赛表现分析进行实证研究,以2017赛季中国足球超级联赛的240场比赛为样本,探明影响球队竞技状态的表现指标稳定性,并确定对球队战绩影响较大的关键指标。研究结果显示:(1)对联赛排名上游的球队而言,传球成功率、拦截和抢断是较为重要的指标;(2)进球和进攻类指标是强队制胜的关键;(3)联赛排名上游和中游球队比赛表现的整体稳定性要高于下游球队。Competitive status is one of the core research concepts of training.The competitive state greatly affects the performance of the athletes,whereas performance reflects the competitive state.In the past,the researches focused mainly on the individual elite athletes.In order to explore the competitive state of the team sport and its performance indicators,Chinese Super League(CSL)was selected as the research object.CSL is one of the best professional football leagues in Asia and represents the highest level of professional football in China which has received extensive attention.This study was conducted using the autocorrelation function and cross-correlation function in time series.Taking the 240matches of the 2017Chinese Football Association Super League(CSL)as a sample,the stability of the performance indicators affecting the team’s competitive status and the key indicators that had a significant impact on match outcome were analyzed.The results of the study showed that:1)for high-level teams,pass completion,interception and tackle were more important indicators.2)The scoring and offensive indicators were the key to winning the team.3)Stability of high-level teams was higher than middle-level teams and low-level teams.

关 键 词：足球 竞技状态 表现分析 时间序列 中超联赛 

分 类 号：G808.1[文化科学—体育训练]