货币“脱实向虚”与虚拟经济繁荣：基于金融业与房地产业的实证  

Currency is distracted from Their Intended Purpose and Virtual Economic Prosperity: Evidence based on Financial and Real Estate Industry

作　　者：李世美 沈丽 Li Shimei;Shen Li

机构地区：[1]广西财经学院管理科学与工程学院,广西南宁530003 [2]第一太平洋戴维斯物业有限公司,湖北武汉430000

出　　处：《西南金融》2019年第11期32-41,共10页Southwest Finance

基　　金：广西财经学院管理科学与工程学科建设经费;广西财经学院人才引进基金项目“货币脱实向虚与经济虚实背离下实体经济资本配置效率研究”(项目编号：BS2019013);湖南省社科基金项目“住房价格上涨对城镇居民消费需求影响研究”(项目编号：13YBA173)资助

摘　　要：本文根据虚拟经济和实体经济的货币需求差异,构建货币“脱实向虚”和虚拟经济繁荣相互作用的理论分析框架,得出:货币“脱实向虚”与虚拟经济存在相互作用的正反馈机制。在理论分析的基础上,进一步以房地产业、金融业作为虚拟经济的代表性部门,通过向量自回归模型来进行实证检验,结果表明:金融业对货币产生的“脱实向虚”作用强于房地产业;货币“脱实向虚”对金融业的作用力度比房地产业更大,提高利率对房地产业具有一定抑制效应,但对金融业效果不显著。Based on the difference in the money demand between the virtual economy and the real economy,this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework for the interaction between the currency that is distracted from their intended purpose and the virtual economy,and it concludes that there exists a positive feedback mechanism of the interaction between currency that is distracted from their intended purpose and the virtual economy.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper further uses the real estate industry and the financial industry as the representative departments of the virtual economy,and conducts empirical tests through the vector autoregressive model.The re sults show that the financial industry has a stronger effect on the“distraction”of currency than the real estate indus try;the effect of the“distraction”of currency on the financial industry is greater than that of the real estate industry.Increasing interest rates has a certain inhibitory effect on the real estate industry,but the effect on the financial in dustry is not significant.

关 键 词：脱实向虚 虚拟经济 金融资产 虚拟资产 房地产市场 货币政策 利率政策 货币供求 宏观调控 房地产调控 资产泡沫 风险防控 金融支持实体经济 

分 类 号：F220[经济管理—国民经济] F820