基于SBM-Undesirable的我国废水减排潜力研究及预测  

Research and prediction on reduction potential of wastewater emission in China based on SBM-Undesirable model

作　　者：李珊珊[1] 张文松[1] 王单玉 LI Shanshan;ZHANG Wensong;WANG Danyu(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《人民长江》2019年第11期113-118,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(17AGL006);北京社会科学基金重点项目(18GLA008)

摘　　要：为了评估我国不同省份废水减排潜力的差异,并对"十三五"规划中废水量与废水中污染物减排目标的可行性进行分析,选用了SBM-Undesirable模型来构建废水减排潜力模型,用于研究2012~2015年间我国各省份废水减排空间。研究表明:①不同省份的废水减排潜力存在着很大差异,宁夏、新疆和江西等7个省份的减排潜力超过了1/3。②不同省份的可减排废水规模不同,河南、山东和浙江等5个省份的废水排放量减排规模较大,黑龙江、山东两省份是化学需氧量污染物减排大户,对于湖南、河南两省份的氨氮污染物减排状况应给予重点关注。③"十三五"规划中提出的到2020年化学需氧量和氨氮排放量减少10%的目标在理论上是可以实现的,而废水排放总量下降的目标则较难完成。依据研究结论提出了相应的建议。In order to evaluate the difference of wastewater emission reduction potential among the provinces in China, and to analyze the feasibility of wastewater quantity and pollutant emission reduction targets in the 13 th Five-Year Plan, SBM-Undesirable model was used to build wastewater emission reduction potential model, and the wastewater emission reduction potential of different provinces in China from 2012 to 2015 was studied. The results show that: ① There are great differences in wastewater emission reduction potentials among different provinces. The emission reduction potentials of Ningxia Hui Autonomous region, Jiangxi Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region are more than one third. ② Different provinces have different scale of wastewater reduction. Henan, Shandong and Zhejiang Provinces have larger scale of wastewater emission reduction. Heilongjiang and Shandong Provinces are the "primary entities reducing chemical oxygen demand pollutants". The reduction of ammonia nitrogen pollutants in Hunan and Henan Provinces deserves more attention. ③ The goal of reducing 10% chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen emissions by 2020 in the 13 th Five-Year Plan is theoretically achievable, while the goal of reducing total wastewater discharge is more difficult to achieve.

关 键 词：废水减排潜力 减排潜力预测 SBM-Undesirable模型 水资源目标 资源经济 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]