一种生命线工程地震直接经济损失预测的改进算法——以水池和供水管网为例  

An improved algorithm for prediction of direct economic loss of earthquake of lifeline engineering——Taking pool and water supply pipe network as an example

作　　者：孙晨雨 郭恩栋[1] 李玉芹 于天洋 李倩[1] SUN Chenyu;GUO Endong;LI Yuqin;YU Tianyang;LI Qian(Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2019年第4期182-189,共8页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：大中城市地震灾害情景构建重点专项资助项目(2016QJGJ11);中国地震局创新团队发展计划(中国大陆地区地震灾害模拟与评估)

摘　　要：生命线工程对区域内的经济和社会功能维系起到重要作用,一旦遭到地震破坏,将带来巨大的经济损失和诸多次生的负面影响。因此,生命线工程的地震损失评估工作是十分重要的。针对传统的生命线工程地震直接经济损失预测的计算方法时常会带来的缺乏区分度的问题,利用线性插值法,提出了一种改进公式。并以水池和供水管网为例,进行了计算和比对。证明了改进方法具有以下优点:能够克服传统方法缺乏区分度的问题,对某一地震破坏等级对应的震害指数的变化导致预测结果展现出足够的区分度;足够简便,不会带来过多的运算量上升;没有引入新的概念,能够较好地融入现有震害评估体系。The lifeline engineering plays an important role in maintaining the economic and social functions of the region.Once it is damaged by the earthquake,it will bring huge economic losses and many secondary negative effects.Therefore,the seismic loss assessment of the lifeline engineering is very important.Aiming at the problem of the lack of discrimination in the traditional calculation method of direct economic loss prediction of lifeline engineering,an improved method is proposed by using linear interpolation method in this paper.Taking the pool and water supply pipe network as an example,calculations and comparisons were made.It is proved that the improved method has the following advantages:it can overcome the problem of the lack of discrimination of the traditional method,and the prediction result caused by the change of the seismic damage index corresponding to a certain earthquake damage level shows sufficient discrimination;it is simple enough and will not bring increase in calculation;It can be better integrated into the existing seismic assessment system without introducing new concepts.

关 键 词：生命线工程 水池 供水管网 地震直接经济损失分析 改进算法 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]