海洋产业结构升级、海洋科技创新与海洋经济增长——基于省际数据面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型的分析  

Upgrading of Marine Industrial Structure,Innovation of Marine Science and Technology and Marine Economic Growth:Analysis Based on Panel Vector Autoregressive(PVAR) Model of Interprovincial Data

作　　者：杜军 寇佳丽 赵培阳 Du Jun;Kou Jiali;Zhao Peiyang(Management School,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 52408&China;Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt Development Research Institute,Zhanjiang 52408&China)

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学管理学院 [2]广东沿海经济带发展研究院,广东湛江524088

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2019年第21期137-146,共10页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划项目“‘一带一路’战略下我国沿海省份基础设施投资效率及其综合效应研究”(GD16XYJ07);广东沿海经济带发展研究院专项项目“广东沿海经济带海洋经济发展的金融服务研究”(C16331);广东海洋大学创新强校工程项目(重大科研项目培育计划)“中国与21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线主要国家水产品贸易合作及政策研究”(GDOU2017052613)

摘　　要：为促进我国海洋经济实现高质量发展,基于2006-2015年的省际面板数据,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型对海洋产业结构升级、海洋科技创新与海洋经济增长之间的动态关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:海洋产业结构升级对海洋经济增长具有显著的影响,海洋经济增长对海洋科技创新具有显著的影响;从短期来看海洋经济增长对海洋产业结构升级的正向效应不明显,从长期来看海洋经济增长能够促进海洋产业结构优化;海洋科技创新对海洋经济增长的正效应逐渐减弱,海洋产业结构升级是海洋经济增长的格兰杰原因,海洋经济增长是海洋科技创新的格兰杰原因。In order to promote the high quality development of marine economy in China, based on the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the dynamic relationship between the upgrading of marine industrial structure, marine scientific and technological innovation and marine economic growth by using panel vector autoregression(PVAR) model. The results show that, the upgrading of marine industrial structure has a significant impact on marine economic growth, and marine economic growth has a significant impact on marine scientific and technological innovation;in the short term, the positive effect of marine economic growth on the upgrading of marine industrial structure is not obvious, in the long run, marine economic growth can promote the optimization of marine industrial structure;the positive effect of marine scientific and technological innovation on marine economic growth is gradually weakened, the upgrading of marine industrial structure is the Granger cause of marine economic growth, and marine economic growth is the Granger cause of marine scientific and technological innovation.

关 键 词：海洋产业结构升级 海洋科技创新 海洋经济增长 面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型 广义矩估计(GMM) 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] P7[天文地球—海洋科学]