基于专利挖掘的感知人工智能技术融合趋势分析  

Analysis of Technology Integration Trend of Perceptual Artificial Intelligence based on Patent Mining

作　　者：李树刚[1] 刘颖 郑玲玲 Li Shugang;Liu Ying;Zheng Lingling(School of Management,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学管理学院

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2019年第23期28-35,共8页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71871135)

摘　　要：对于新兴产业而言,把握产业技术融合现状对于引导产业发展、加强技术创新具有非常重要的意义。人工智能技术与其它技术融合是促进产业创新发展的主要内在动力,因此对技术融合趋势进行分析有利于提前、准确把握该产业技术发展方向。聚焦感知人工智能领域,率先采用专利分析方法对10 685项专利数据进行挖掘,结合ISI技术分类体系,基于技术共现次数及关联度识别感知人工智能融合核心技术,并从核心技术融合的分散度及专利增长量等方面考察感知人工智能技术融合情况。研究发现,目前感知人工智能技术融合正处在成长期向成熟期过渡的阶段,并很快进入技术融合衰退期,建议政府及投资者积极布局现有感知人工智能主导技术,以期在即将到来的技术融合成熟期掌握主动权。同时,应大力推广"感知人工智能+"模式,提升该领域技术融合动力,延缓融合衰退期的到来。For emerging industries, grasping the current situation of industrial technology integration is very important to guide the development of industry and strengthen technological innovation. The integration of artificial intelligence technology and other technologies is the main internal driving force to promote its innovation and development. Therefore, accurate analysis of technology integration trend is conducive to accurately grasping technological development trend in this industry in advance. This paper focuses on the perceptual artificial intelligence and firstly adopts the patent analysis method to mining 10,685 patent data, combing the ISI technology classification system, based on the number of times of technology co-occurrence and correlation, the core technology of perceptual artificial intelligence fusion is identified, and the fusion of perceptual artificial intelligence technology is analyzed from the aspects of the dispersion of core technology fusion and patent growth. Logistic model and ARIMA model are used to predict the trends of technology growth curve and technology integration dispersion and the trend quadrant map is proposed. It is found that the technology integration of perceptual artificial intelligence is in the stage of transition from growth to maturity, and it will soon enter the period of technological integration recession. It is recommended that the government and investors should actively deploy the existing perceptual artificial intelligence leading technology in order to take the leading position on the upcoming stage of technology mature. At the same time, the "perceptual artificial intelligence +" model should be vigorously promoted to increase the momentum of technological integration in this field and delay the arrival of the technology integration recession period.

关 键 词：感知人工智能 专利挖掘 技术融合 技术创新 

分 类 号：G301[文化科学]