事实汇率制度选择、企业生产率与对外直接投资  

The De Facto Exchange Rate Regime,Firm Productivity,and Firms’ OFDI Activities

作　　者：张夏[1] 汪亚楠 施炳展[3] ZHANG Xia;WANG Yanan;SHI Bingzhan(College of Economics and Management,Agricultural Education Development Research Center,Southwest University;School of Economics and Commerce,South China University of Technology;Institution of International Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院/农业教育研究中心,重庆400715 [2]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广东广州510006 [3]南开大学国际经济研究所,天津300071

出　　处：《金融研究》2019年第10期1-20,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773056、71973071);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(SWU1809702、2018BSXM17);中国博士后科学基金项目(2018M643056、2018M641576);广州市哲学社科规划2019年课题(2019GZGJ10)

摘　　要：企业"走出去"和汇率制度安排灵活化是中国参与全球经济的两大典型特征,本文从企业异质性视角讨论了双边事实汇率制度选择对企业对外直接投资的影响效应。理论层面上,本文将Gali and Monacelli(2005)的一般均衡框架拓展为两国模型,发现双边固定汇率制度降低了企业进入东道国开展OFDI活动的生产率阈值,提高了企业对外直接投资倾向。同时,尽管企业生产率的提升能够促进企业对外直接投资活动,但其促进力度明显不及双边事实固定汇率制度安排。实证层面上,本文采用了中国商务部公布的2000-2013年《境外投资企业(机构)名录》等微观企业数据,发现双边事实固定汇率制度能使企业进行OFDI概率平均提高0.8%~55.4%。考虑其他异质性因素及内生性问题后,本文主要结论依然稳健。China is the capital exporting country worldwide. With Chinese OFDI activities increasing significantly, China’s exchange rate regime reforms have been undertaken step by step. Not only has the de jure exchange rate regime become more flexible, but also has the de facto exchange rate regime. Apart from the research on the exchange rate and OFDI based on the open macro economy, this paper explores how the bilateral exchange rate regime affects firms’ OFDI decisions from the microeconomic view, further enriching the research on exchange rate and OFDI. This paper builds a theoretical model under the general equilibrium framework and discusses the mechanisms between the bilateral exchange rate regime arrangement and firms’ OFDI activities based on a two-country open macroeconomic model. It also uses highly detailed micro data to test and analyze the related hypothesis. Specifically, it uses List of Overseas Investment Enterprises(institutions) data, China Industry Business Performance Data, bilateral de facto exchange rate regime data published on Shambaugh’s personal website, World Development Index data from the World Bank, the Gravity database from the CEPII, the IFS database, and the China Statistical Yearbook from 2000 to 2013.This paper shows that compared to the floating exchange rate regime, the fixed exchange rate regime can lower the threshold productivity required for firms to conduct OFDI activities and to switch from export to OFDI activities. That is, the bilateral fixed exchange rate regime can stimulate firms’ OFDI activities. This paper also shows that compared to the bilateral de facto floating exchange rate regime, the bilateral de facto fixed exchange rate regime can increase firms’ inclination to undertake OFDI activities by 0.8%~55.4%. Furthermore, on average, one-unit increases in firm productivity can increase firms’ probability of undertaking OFDI activities by 0.04%~2.9%. The bilateral de facto fixed exchange rate regime stimulates firms to conduct OFDI more than firm productiv

关 键 词：事实汇率制度 企业对外直接投资 企业生产率 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]