经济政策不确定性环境下地方政府债务扩张动因再检验——基于新口径城投债视角的实证分析  

Testing on Motivation Affecting Municipal Investment Bonds Expansion under Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty——An Empirical Analysis Based on New Statistical Scope

作　　者：刘柳[1] 屈小娥[1] Liu Liu;Qu Xiaoe

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2019年第10期32-46,共15页Public Finance Research

基　　金：陕西省雾霾污染损失评估、影响因素及综合防治对策研究（陕西省软科学研究计划）

摘　　要：本文利用城投债数据,实证检验了经济政策不确定性对城投债扩张的影响,并探讨了经济政策不确定性是否也改变了城投债扩张动因的作用效果。研究发现:(1)经济政策不确定性对经济增长的负向冲击激发了地方政府扩大城投债规模以维持其经济增长的内在动力,故经济政策不确定性上升会导致城投债扩张。(2)经济政策不确定性环境下,财政压力和发展压力与城投债扩张负相关,晋升压力对城投债扩张正向促进作用被显著削弱。(3)经济政策不确定性环境下,财政压力、晋升压力和发展压力对不同地区城投债扩张影响存在异质性。本文为理解城投债扩张提供新的视角,并为控制地方政府债务规模和防范地方政府债务风险提供了借鉴。Using new statistic scope of municipal investment bonds,this paper empirically tests the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the expansion of municipal investment bonds,and discusses whether it has also changed the motivation for the expansion.The research finds that:(1)The negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic growth has stimulated local governments to increase the scale of its investment bonds to maintain its economic growth.Therefore,the rising uncertainty of economic policy will lead to the expansion of municipal investment bonds.(2)Under the uncertain environment of economic policy,fiscal pressure and development pressure are negatively correlated with the expansion of municipal investment bonds,and the positive effect of promotion pressure on the expansion of municipal investment bonds is significantly weakened.(3)Under the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact of fiscal pressure,promotion pressure and development pressure on the expansion of municipal investment bonds in different regions is heterogeneous.This paper provides a new perspective for understanding the expansion of municipal investment bonds,and provides reference for controlling the scale of local government debt and preventing local government debt risks.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 城投债 财政压力 晋升压力 发展压力 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]