劳动力转移与技术进步对粮食产量的门槛效应分析  

The Threshold Effect of Labor Migration and Technological Progress on Grain Yields

作　　者：耿宇宁 刘婧[2] GENG Yu-ning;LIU Jing(School of Economics and Management,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China;School of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]中北大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030051 [2]太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《经济问题》2019年第12期96-103,共8页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“农民专业合作社资金互助的突发事件风险与应急管理机制研究”(14CJY074)

摘　　要：基于我国13个粮食主产省份的面板数据,运用面板数据线性回归模型和面板门槛模型实证分析劳动力转移与技术进步对粮食产量的影响。研究发现:劳动力转移显著负向影响粮食产量,技术进步显著正向影响粮食产量,农机技术与生化技术存在相互替代关系,验证了诱致性技术创新理论在我国的适用性;劳动力转移、农机技术与生化技术对粮食产量的影响呈现出明显时间门槛效应。其中,劳动力转移对粮食产量的负向冲击力度逐渐减弱,农机技术与生化技术对粮食产量的正向影响程度逐渐提高;我国粮食生产技术总体沿着劳动节约型技术与土地节约型技术并重发展的路径演进,但在人多地少的资源禀赋约束条件下,粮食生产主要依赖生化技术,辅助依赖农机技术。Based on the panel data in 13 main grain-producing provinces in China, this paper uses the linear regression model of panel data and panel threshold model to analyze the effect of labor migration and technological progress on grain yields. The conclusions of the study are as follows: firstly, labor migration has the obvious negative effect on grain yields, and technological progress has the obvious positive effect on grain yields. What is more, the agricultural machinery technology and biochemical technology exist mutual substitution relationship, which verifies the applicability of the induced technological innovation theory in China. Secondly, labor migration and technological progress have the obvious time threshold effect. That is to say, the negative effect degree of labor migration on grain yields has decreased gradually. In the meantime?the positive effect degree of the agricultural machinery technology and biochemical technology on grain yields has increased gradually. Finally, the Chinese grain production technology has progressed along the path on which the labor-saving technology and land-saving technology have synergy development. However, under the restriction of resource endowment of more people and less land in China, the grain production has the main dependence on the biochemical technology and auxiliary dependence on the agricultural machinery technology.

关 键 词：劳动力转移 农机技术 生化技术 粮食产量 

分 类 号：F307.13[经济管理—产业经济]