人口老龄化、社会保障支出与中国经济增长率  

Population Aging,Social Security Expenditure and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：张鹏飞 仇雨临[1] ZHANG Peng-fei;QIU Yu-lin(School of Labor and Human Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学劳动人事学院

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2019年第11期108-119,共12页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：中国经济发展迈进新常态后仍面临着诸多困境,合理把握新常态下经济发展路径和着力点显得格外紧迫。基于此,本文采用2002~2017年31省、直辖市、自治区面板数据,实证检验了人口老龄化、社会保障支出与中国经济增长率之间的关系。研究发现,人口老龄化对中国经济增长率存在显著的负向影响,社会保障支出对中国经济增长率存在显著的负向影响。进一步研究发现,人口老龄化、社会保障支出均可以通过抑制技术水平增长速度和储蓄增长速度来影响中国经济增长率。此外本文研究发现人口老龄化与社会保障支出对中国经济增长率的负向影响存在显著的互补关系。通过采用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和差分广义矩估计(Diff-GMM)对上述结论进行稳健性检验后依然成立。因此提高生育水平、改善生育意愿、降低社会保障费率、合理控制社会保障待遇水平,是实现中国经济增长率提高的重要途径。China’s economic development is still facing many difficulties after entering the new normal.It is particularly urgent to grasp the path and focus of economic development under the new normal.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2017,this paper empirically examines the relationship between population aging,social security expenditure and China’s economic growth rate.The study finds that the aging population has a significant negative impact on China’s economic growth rate,and social security expenditure has a significant negative impact on China’s economic growth rate.Further research shows that aging population and social security expenditure can affect China’s economic growth rate by restraining the growth rate of technological level and inhibiting the growth rate of deposit.In addition,this study finds that there is a significant complementary relationship between population aging and social security expenditure.In this paper,both 2 SLS and Diff-GMM are employed to test the robustness of the above conclusions.Therefore,improving fertility level,improving fertility intention,lowering social security rate and controlling social security treatment level reasonably are the important ways to realize the increase of China’s economic growth rate.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 社会保障支出 经济增长 技术水平 劳动力 储蓄 

分 类 号：F24[经济管理—劳动经济]