二三产业劳动力需求与产值的关系及其预测  

The Relationship Between Labor Demand and Output Value in the Secondary and Tertiary Industries and the Prediction of Labor Demand

作　　者：张帆[1] 王福林[1] 王富林 杨娟丽[1] ZHANG Fan;WANG Fu-lin;WANG Fu-lin;YANG Juan-li(College of Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;College of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2019年第21期74-83,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(18GLC205,18GLH729);黑龙江省博士后面上项目(LBH-Z18024);东北农业大学青年才俊科研基金(18QC18);“大北农学者计划”教育学人基金项目(JYXRRK2018004);河南省教育厅人文社科一般项目(2019-ZZJH-043);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助基金(2572018BM07)

摘　　要：在分析第二、三产业产值与劳动力需求关系相关性的基础上,构建了我国第二、三产业产值与劳动力需求的关系模型,并运用基于拉格朗日乘子法的组合预测方法,对未来九年我国第二产业第三产业劳动力需求进行预测.研究结果表明:第二产业、第三产业的产值和劳动力需求呈现对数函数和线性函数回归模型的趋势.基于此组合预测模型实现了对未来九年第二、三产业劳动力需求的预测,且预测误差小于3.905928%、2.1279%,具有良好的预测精度.该研究不仅为进一步研究二三产业劳动力需求的预测打下了理论基础,也有助于我国各级政府制定相关的发展目标和决策.Based on the analysis of the correlation between the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries and the labor demand,this paper constructs the relationship model between the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries and the labor demand in China.And we use the combined forecasting method based on Lagrange multiplier method to analyze the labor demand of the tertiary industry in the next nine years.The results show that the output value and labor demand of secondary industry and tertiary industry present the trend of logarithmic function and linear function regression model.Based on this combination forecasting model,the labor demand of the second and third industries in the next nine years is forecasted,and the forecasting error is less than 3.905928%,2.1279%,which has good forecasting accuracy.This study not only lays a theoretical foundation for further research on the forecast of labor demand in secondary and tertiaxy industries,but also helps governments at all levels to formulate relevant development goals and decisions.

关 键 词：产值 劳动力需求 拉格朗日乘子法 组合预测 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]