中国城镇非正规经济与城镇化发展的倒U型关系  

The Inverted-U Relationship between Urban Informal Economy and Urbanization in China

作　　者：黄耿志[1,2] 张虹鸥 薛德升[1,2] 姚华松[4] HUANG Gengzhi;ZHANG Hongou;XUE Desheng;YAO Huasong(Center for Urban and Regional Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation,Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong,China;Guangzhou Institute of Geography,Guangzhou 510070,Guangdong,China;Guangzhou Development Research Institute,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510405,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学城市与区域研究中心,广东广州510275 [2]广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]广州地理研究所,广东广州510070 [4]广州大学广州发展研究院,广东广州510405

出　　处：《经济地理》2019年第11期76-83,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41771137、41930646);广东省科学院百名青年人才培养计划项目(2019GDASYL-0104004)

摘　　要：非正规经济已成为21世纪世界城镇化发展中最引人注目的现象之一。基于人口普查数据和面板数据回归模型,文章从经济和就业两方面揭示了中国城镇非正规经济与城镇化之间存在倒U型关系,发现不同城镇化发展阶段下非正规经济的作用不同。在城镇化初级阶段,非正规经济在经济系统的份额随城镇化发展而不断上升;城镇化发展至某一水平后,伴随经济结构转变和全球竞争力增强,非正规经济扩张速度减缓,在经济系统的比重出现下降。这表明非正规经济对于不同发展阶段的区域城市化发挥不同程度的作用,相关政策应对应有所不同。尽管非正规经济/就业在经济/就业系统的份额趋于降低,但不能认为它会完全消失,新的经济模式可能产生新的非正规经济来源。呼吁对非正规经济与城镇化、工业化和全球化的关系开展更多研究。The informal economy has become one of the most remarkable phenomena in the 21 st century’s world urbanization. Great attention has been paid to the development dynamics of informal economy and its roles in urbanization in current literature. This paper reveals the inverted-U relationship between urban informal economy/employment and urbanization in China by using the data based on population census and the method of panel regression.It mainly argues that the role of urban informal economy/employment differs in different levels of urbanization. In general, the share of urban informal economy/employment is likely to grow with the urbanization level in the initial stage of urbanization, while it is likely to decline when urbanization reaches a certain high level. This implies that relevant policy responses should take into consideration the different roles informal economy plays in urbanization in the regions at different developmental stages. Although the share of urban informal economy/employment is likely to decline,informal economic activities would not disappear as new source of informality might be generated by new economic production modes. The paper thus calls for more research on the relationship between informal economies and urbanization, industrialization and globalization.

关 键 词：非正规经济 非正规就业 隐性就业 经济贡献 城镇化 创新驱动发展 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济] C912.8[社会学]