中国出口贸易隐含碳排放强度变动及驱动因素研究——基于CMRIO-SDA模型  

Changes and Driving Factors of Embodied Carbon Emissions Intensity in China’s Export Trade——Based on CMRIO and SDA Model

作　　者：尹伟华[1] Yin Weihua

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心经济预测部

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2019年第12期123-134,共12页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“中国实现2030年碳排放峰值目标的优化路径研究”(2016YFA0602803)

摘　　要：随着经济全球化和国内市场化程度不断加深,碳减排问题研究不能不考虑区域间和行业间的相互关联。本文运用中国区域间投入产出(CMRIO)模型和结构分解分析(SDA)方法,对中国出口贸易隐含碳排放强度进行了估算,并在此基础上分析了中国出口贸易碳排放强度变化趋势及其驱动因素。研究表明:(1)中国出口贸易隐含碳排放强度呈现显著下降趋势,其值由2007年的2.3153 t/万元下降至2012年的1.5537 t/万元,年均下降7.67%左右。(2)中国出口贸易隐含碳排放强度具有明显的区域和行业差异,经济相对欠发达区域出口碳排放强度下降幅度要高于经济相对发达区域,能源消耗较高的工业出口贸易隐含碳排放下降幅度要高于能源消耗较低的服务业。(3)中国区域、行业出口贸易碳排放强度变化量与期初值呈现显著的负相关性,具有明显的收敛性特征。(4)直接碳排放系数效应、中间投入技术结构效应、出口贸易综合效应三者共同促使了中国出口贸易隐含碳排放强度的降低,其中直接碳排放系数变动是最大驱动因素。(5)中国各区域出口贸易隐含碳排放强度变动的驱动因素存在明显差异。增加值系数效应为正,直接碳排放系数、出口贸易综合效应为负,中间投入技术结构效应表现不一,且影响程度相对较小。(6)中国各行业出口贸易隐含碳排放强度变动的驱动因素具有显著差异性。直接碳排放系数效应是最大的,具有显著的负向效应,增加值系数、中间投入技术结构、出口贸易综合效应表现不一。With the deepening of economic globalization and marketization,carbon emission reduction cannot ignore the interrelationship among regions and sectors.The paper measures and analyzes embodied carbon emissions intensity of export trade at regional and sectoral levels as well as their major drivers with a combination of China’s multi-regional input-output(CMRIO)model and structural decomposition analysis(SDA)approach.The results show that:(1)embodied carbon emissions intensity of China’s export trade shows a significant downward trend,from 2.3153 t/10000 CNY in 2007 to 1.5537 t/10000 CNY in 2012,with an average annual decrease of 7.6677%.(2)There are obvious regional and sectoral differences in embodied carbon emissions intensity of China’s export trade.The decline of embodied carbon emissions intensity of export trade in the underdeveloped regions is higher than that in the developed regions.The decline embodied carbon emissions intensity of export trade in the high energy consumption sectors is higher than that in the service and lower energy consumption sectors.(3)Embodied carbon emissions intensity of China’s regional and sectoral export trade has obvious convergence characteristics.The regions and sectors with higher embodied carbon emissions intensity of export trade have a higher decline.(4)The decline of embodied carbon emissions intensity in China’s export trade is the result of change of direct carbon emission coefficient,intermediate input structure and export trade,among which change of direct carbon emission coefficient is the biggest driving factor.(5)There are obvious differences in driving factors of embodied carbon emissions intensity in China’s regional export trade.The carbon emission coefficient and export trade effect are negative,the value-added coefficient effect is positive,and the intermediate input structure effect is low and changing.(6)There are significant differences in driving factors of embodied carbon emissions intensity in China’s sectoral export trade.The carbon emis

关 键 词：出口贸易 隐含碳排放强度 区域间投入产出模型 结构分解分析 中国 

分 类 号：F75[经济管理—国际贸易]