基于3种函数的县级城市暴雨强度公式比较研究  

The Comparative Study on the Formula of Torrential Rain Intensity in County-level Cities based Three Kinds of Distribution Function

作　　者：李长军[1] 朱秀红 周秀军 LI Changjun;ZHU Xiuhong;ZHOU Xiujun(Shandong Meteorological Information Center,Jinan 250001,China;Wulian County Meteorological Bureau,Wulian 262300,China;Rizhao Meteorological Bureau,Rizhao 276826,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象信息中心,山东济南250001 [2]五莲县气象局,山东五莲262300 [3]日照市气象局,山东日照276826

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2019年第5期560-564,共5页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：科技部重点课题资助项目(2005DKA31700-06-08)

摘　　要：为防范因暴雨或大暴雨诱发的城市内涝灾害,利用五莲县1969-2018年共50年的分钟降水资料计算当地暴雨强度公式;采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型、耿贝尔和指数3种分布曲线进行拟合调整,得出3种不同曲线计算方法的重现期、降雨强度和降雨历时关系值(简称P-i-t关系),并分别进行精度检验和比较,最终确定利用P-Ⅲ分布、最小平方法求参数计算出的暴雨强度公式为最优分布曲线。该暴雨强度公式经检验:绝对标准差为0.031 mm/min,相对标准差为4.09%,计算结果误差较小,精度较高。In order to prevent urban disasters caused by heavy rain or heavy rain,t a total of 50 years of minute precipitation data from 1969 to 2018 in Wulian County are utilized to calculate the local torrential rain intensity formula;three distribution curves of Pearson III,Gengbeier,and exponent which are fitted and adjusted are used to obtain the recurrence period,rainfall intensity,and rainfall duration of the three different curve calculation methods(abbreviated as the P-i-t relationship),and then the accuracy is tested and compared respectively.Finally,it is determined that the formula of rainstorm strength calculated by using P-III distribution and the least flat method is the optimal distribution curve.The formula of the torrential rain intensity has been tested:the absolute standard deviation is 0.031 mm/min,and the relative standard deviation is 4.09%.The calculation error is small and the accuracy is high.

关 键 词：暴雨强度 曲线拟合 皮尔逊Ⅲ型 耿贝尔 指数 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]