新农保对农村居民自我养老保障的替代效应——基于家庭土地经营面积变化视角的分析  

The Substitution Effect of New Rural Pension Insurance on the Self-Pension Security of Rural Residents:Based on the Perspective of Household Land Operating Area Change

作　　者：黄宏伟[1] 胡浩钰 HUANG Hongwei;HU Haoyu

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院、城乡社区社会管理湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430073 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2019年第6期65-72,共8页Social Security Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“子女迁移对农村老年人多维贫困的影响研究——基于能力剥夺的视角”(71704190);中国博士后科学基金第57批面上资助项目“基于微观视角的农村社会养老保险的经济效应研究”(2015M572237);中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目“新型城镇化背景下农村老年人多维贫困问题研究”(2722019JCT031)、中南财经政法大学项目“新时代养老服务体系建设研究”(31510000072)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：中国农村人口老龄化现象日趋严重,城镇化与家庭结构小型化、核心化等导致养儿防老和以地养老的传统保障模式逐渐弱化。本文基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2011年和2013年的微观数据,采用双重差分(DID)方法从家庭土地经营面积变化的视角评估了新型农村社会养老保险(简称“新农保”)对农村居民自我养老保障的替代效应。分析结果表明,新农保对自我养老保障具有显著的替代作用,参加新农保可以使农村家庭的土地经营面积减少14%。进一步将样本按家庭养老保障能力分类展开讨论,发现新农保对自我养老保障的替代效应主要体现在家庭养老保障能力较弱的居民中,新农保对家庭养老保障能力较强的居民影响不显著。建议政府在缴费与基础养老金发放两个环节共同发力,持续扩大农村社会养老保险的保障效应。The aging of China's rural population is becoming more and more serious.Urbanization,miniaturization and core tendency of the family structure have led to weaker effect of traditional security model of raising children for the elderly as well as providing for the elderly by land.Based on the micro-data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2011 and 2013,this paper evaluates the substitution effect of new rural pension insurance on rural self-pension security from the perspective of household land operating area change by using the difference-in-difference(DID)method.The analysis results show that the new rural pension insurance has a significant substitution effect on self-pension security and participating in the new rural pension insurance can reduce the land operating area of rural households by 14%.Furthermore,by classifying samples according to the family's old-age security ability,it is found that the substitution effect of the new rural pension insurance on self-pension security is mainly reflected in the residents with weak family's old-age security ability but not significant with strong family.It is suggested that the governments should work together in contribution and basic pension payment alongside with continuing to expand the security effect of rural society pension insurance.

关 键 词：新农保 农村居民自我养老保障 土地经营面积 家庭养老保障能力 双重差分 

分 类 号：D66[政治法律—政治学]