基于R/S和M-K分析的高良涧闸年径流量变化趋势研究  

Study on Annual Runoff Trend of Gaoliangjian Gate Based on R/S and M-K Analysis

作　　者：黄璐[1] 王鼎[1] 朱文彪[1] 左亚会[1] HUANG Lu;WANG Ding;ZHU Wenbiao;ZUO Yahui(Main Irrigation Channel Management Division of Jiangsu Province,Huaian 223200,Jiangsu)

机构地区：[1]江苏省灌溉总渠管理处

出　　处：《江苏水利》2019年第11期38-40,45,共4页Jiangsu Water Resources

摘　　要：简单介绍了R/S分析法和Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法,并将这2种方法结合用于预测年径流时间序列未来趋势。针对高良涧闸60年(1956~2015年)的年径流量资料进行分析,计算出年径流时间序列的Hurst指数和M-K趋势检验的统计变量并作出分析预测。结果表明:高良涧闸的年径流量时间序列在未来一定时间呈下降趋势。The R/S analysis method and the Mann-Kendall( M-K) test method are briefly introduced in this article. These two methods are combined to predict the future trend of the annual runoff time series. According to the analysis of the annual runoff data of Gaoliangjian Gate for 60 years( 1956-2015),s Hurst index and M-K trend test of annual runoff time series are calculated. The trend is predicted. The results show that the annual runoff time series of Gaoliangjian Gate has a downward trend in the future.

关 键 词：R/S分析 Mann-Kendall检验法 径流量 预测 趋势 

分 类 号：TV123[水利工程—水文学及水资源]