提升增长内生动力 增强经济发展韧性——2019年中国宏观经济秋季报告  

Enhance the Endogenous Power of Growth and Increase the Resilience of Economic Development——Autumn Report on China’s Macroeconomy in 2019

作　　者：中国社会科学院宏观经济研究中心课题组 李雪松 汪红驹[3] 冯明[3] 李双双 张彬斌[3] Research Group of Macroeconomic Research Center CASS

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100044 [3]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京

出　　处：《财经智库》2019年第6期5-19,140,141,共17页Financial Minds

摘　　要：2019年前三季度,全球经济贸易增速持续放缓,中国经济运行总体稳定,稳中趋缓;就业比较充分,韧性较好;猪肉价格大幅上涨,核心物价走势平稳;进口增速降幅超过出口,国际收支改善;货币流动性基本适度,金融市场信用分化。今后一段时期需要继续关注中美经贸摩擦的影响,贸易紧张局势带来的新增潜在就业压力,国内猪肉价格上涨和CPI走势,财政金融与房地产领域风险等。预计2019年中国经济增长6.1%,CPI上涨2.8%;2020年经济增长6.0%,CPI上涨3.4%左右。面对不确定因素增多的外部环境,建议加强逆周期调节,提升增长内生动力,增强经济发展韧性。通过深化改革激发活力,调动各方面的积极性;加快实施创新驱动发展战略,推进实体经济与制造业高质量发展;加大逆周期调节力度,保持就业在合理水平;综合举策,有效应对价格结构性上涨;以开放促改革,统筹应对中美经贸摩擦;把握好风险处置的节奏和力度,守住不发生系统性风险的底线。In the fi rst three quarters of 2019,the growth rate of global economy and trade continued to slow down.China’s economic operation was generally stable,but was slowing down;employment was relatively good,and resilience was good;the price of pork rose sharply,and core prices fluctuated smoothly;the growth rate of import fell more than that of export,and the balance of payments improved;the currency liquidity was basically moderate,and the credit of financial market was differentiated.In the coming period,we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of Sino-US economic and trade frictions,new potential employment pressures brought about by trade tensions,domestic pork price increases and CPI trends,and fi nancial and real estate risks.China’s economy is expected to grow by 6.1%this year and CPI by 2.8%.In 2020,the economy will grow by 6.0%and CPI will rise by about 3.4%.Facing the external environment with increasing uncertainties,it is recommended to strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment of economic growth expectations,enhance the endogenous power of growth,and increase the economic development resilience.It is needed to intensify reforms to stimulate vitality in all aspects,mobilize all aspects of enthusiasm;accelerate the implementation of innovation-driven development strategies,promote the high-quality development of the real economy and manufacturing;increase counter-cyclical adjustment efforts,maintain employment at a reasonable level,comprehensively implement policies,and effectively increase the price structure,promote the reform through opening up,and comprehensively deal with the Sino-US economic and trade frictions;grasp the rhythm and intensity of risk management and hold the bottom line to avoid systemic risks.

关 键 词：宏观经济 逆周期调节 内生增长 发展韧性 

分 类 号：E66[军事—军事理论]