中国家用轿车市场需求分析与仿真研究  

Market Demand Analysis and Simulation Research of Chinese Family Car

作　　者：张静 夏田[1] Zhang Jing;Xia Tian(Shaanxi University of Science and Technology,Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Shaanxi Xi’an 710021)

机构地区：[1]陕西科技大学机电工程学院

出　　处：《汽车实用技术》2019年第23期231-234,共4页Automobile Applied Technology

基　　金：陕西省重点研发计划（2018GY-161）

摘　　要：针对汽车行业日益激烈的供需矛盾及新能源汽车对市场冲击的影响,文章在调研有关家用轿车市场相关数据的基础上,建立了影响家用轿车需求量的系统动力学模型,运用anylogic软件进行建模仿真。通过2013--2018年的调研数据验证了模型的合理性,以此为基础,并分析了GDP、人口、油价、公路里程等相关变量对轿车市场需求的影响。仿真结果显示:国家的宏观调控政策对于轿车市场的影响较大,适当降低关税(5%左右的调整)、加大新能源汽车行业的鼓励政策和加紧环境政策的实施改善,有利于促进家用轿车需求量的增长。In view of the increasingly fierce supply and demand contradiction in the automotive industry and the impact of new energy vehicles on the market impact,this paper establishes a system dynamics model that affects the demand for family cars based on research related data on the family car market,using anylogic software for modeling.simulation.Based on the survey data from 2013 to 2018,the rationality of the model was verified.Based on this,the impacts of GDP,population,oil price,highway mileage and other related variables on the market demand of the car were analyzed.The simulation results show that the country’s macro-control policies have a greater impact on the car market,appropriately reducing tariffs(about 5%adjustment),increasing incentives for new energy vehicle industry and tightening the implementation of environmental policies,which will help promote family cars.The increase in demand.

关 键 词：家用轿车市场 系统动力学 ANYLOGIC 建模仿真 

分 类 号：U461.99[机械工程—车辆工程]