河北南部平原春甘薯生育期气候因子及其生产潜力的变化  

Climatic Factors and Potential Productivity During Growth Period of Spring Sweet Potato in Hebei Southern Plain

作　　者：赵玉兵 孙东磊 李武龙 胡亚亚[2] 韩美坤 马志民[2] ZHAO Yubing;SUN Donglei;LI Wulong;HU Yaya;HAN Meikun;MA Zhimin(Xingtai Meteorological Administration,Xingtai,Hebei 054000;Institute of Cereal and Oil Crops,Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences/Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Breeding of Hebei,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050035,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省邢台市气象局,河北邢台054000 [2]河北省农林科学院粮油作物研究所/河北省作物遗传育种重点实验室,河北石家庄050035

出　　处：《贵州农业科学》2019年第11期134-139,共6页Guizhou Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河北省重点研发计划项目(18226429D);石家庄市科学技术研究和发展计划项目(181490092A);河北省薯类产业创新团队项目(HBCT2018080203)

摘　　要：为河北省南部平原春甘薯生产上合理利用区域气候资源及调整作物种植结构提供理论依据,利用河北省南部平原12个气象站点1958-2017年的气象资料和2010-2015年春甘薯生长发育的监测数据,将春甘薯生育期划分为5个生育时期,利用回归分析、小波分析和Mann-Kendall检验等数理统计方法,研究河北南部平原春甘薯生育期气候因子及其生产潜力的变化。结果表明:春甘薯生育期平均气温呈显著上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.29℃/10a,在1996年前后发生突变,周期性变化明显,主要有18~20 a、9~10 a和5~6 a 3个振荡周期;春甘薯全生育期日照时数平均为1212 h,日照百分率平均为54%,20世纪90年代以后日照时数呈显著下降趋势,气候倾向率为-42 h/10a,周期变化主要有20~25 a和10~15 a 2个振荡周期;全生育期降水量线性变化趋势不明显,周期变化主要有14~15 a、8~10 a和4~5 a 3个振荡周期;春甘薯光温生产潜力理论值平均为17852 kg/hm^2,呈显著下降趋势,气候倾向率为-184 kg/(hm^2·10a);气候生产潜力理论值平均为11322 kg/hm^2,气候倾向率为-415 kg/(hm^2·10a),其高低交替变化显著,主要有18~20 a、10~12 a和5~8 a 3个振荡周期。河北省南部平原春甘薯生育期平均气温升高、日照时数减少,降水变化不明显,光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力降低,均存在振荡周期,光、温、水气候因子变化对春甘薯生产具有负面效应。In order to provide a theoretical basis for the rational use of regional climate resources and adjustment of crop planting structure in spring sweet potato production in the southern plain of Hebei Province,according to the meteorological data from 12 meteorological stationsduring 1958-2017 in the southern plain of Hebei Province and monitoring data on the growth and development of spring sweet potato in 2010-2015,the growth period of spring sweet potato was divided into five growth stages,and the regression analysis,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test were employed to study the changes of climatic factors and production potential of spring sweet potato in the southern plain of Hebei Province.Results:The average temperature during the growth period of spring sweet potato showed a significant upward trend,and the climate tendency rate was 0.29℃/10a.Mutation occurred before and after 1996,and the cyclical changes were obvious,mainly three oscillation cycles,18-20 a,9-10 a and 5-6 a respectively;The average sunshine duration of spring sweet potato was 1212 h,and the average percentage of sunshine was 54%.After the 1990s,the sunshine hours show a significant downward trend,and the climate tendency rate is-42 h/10a.The cyclical changes mainly had two oscillation cycles,20-25 a and 10-15 a respectively;The linear variation trend of precipitation during the whole growth period was not obvious,and the periodic changes mainly included three oscillation cycles of 14-15 a,8-10 a and 4-5 a;The theoretical value of light and temperature production potential of spring sweet potato was 17852 kg/hm^2,showing a significant downward trend,the climate tendency rate was-184 kg/(hm^2·10a);The theoretical value of climate production potential was 11322 kg/hm^2,and the climatic tendency rate was-415 kg/(hm^2·10a),its high and low alternating changes were significant,mainly three oscillation cycles of 18-20 a,10-12 a and 5-8 a.The average temperature of spring sweet potato in the southern plain of Hebei Province increased,the sun

关 键 词：春甘薯 气候变化 生育期 生产潜力 河北 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学] S531[农业科学—农业基础科学]