融合AHP法-PC法-可拓法的两阶段隧道风险评估  

Tunnel Risk Indentification and Assessment Based on AHP-Risk Matrix-Extension Method

作　　者：郝德亮 安永林[2] 李佳豪 岳健[2] 曾贤臣 周进 Hao Deliang;An Yonglin;Li Jiahao;Yue Jian;Zen Xianceng;Zhou Jing(China Railway 16th Bureau Group Road and Bridge Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Miyun 101500,China;School of Civil Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁十六局集团路桥工程有限公司,北京密云101500 [2]湖南科技大学土木工程学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《矿业工程研究》2019年第3期38-45,共8页Mineral Engineering Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51408216;51308209)

摘　　要：为对隧道风险进行评估,在隧道现场调查的基础上,对隧道风险进行识别,基于层次分析法对各风险进行了排序,获得了隧道的主要风险.然后提出对于一般风险采用一阶段法评估,即直接用风险矩阵法进行评估;而对于重大风险采用两阶段法评估,即采用风险矩阵PC法进行初步评估后,再应用多级可拓法进行详细的综合评估.结果表明:隧道主要风险为坍方和洞口进洞风险;隧道整体坍方风险为Ⅰ级极高风险;准则层中地质风险为Ⅰ级极高风险,其次支护为Ⅱ级高度风险.所以控制隧道坍方风险应从地质和支护两个角度进行预防和应对.Risks of tunnel are identified based on the on-spot investigation. The main risk is gotten by sort of risk using the AHP. For the general risks,the risk matrix is applied to assess risk directly;for significant risks,two-stage is adopted,that is the preliminary risk assessment was conducted using risk matrix method,then a detailed assessment is conducted by using the extension theory. Risk index system is esbalised and the classification criteria is discussed. The main risks are tunnel entrance hole and collapse,and the whole risk of tunnel collapse is very high. In rule hierarchy,risk of geological and support sturcture are very high. Some measures should be taken from the view of geology and support structure.

关 键 词：隧道工程 风险评估 可拓法 风险矩阵法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：U495.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]