Monte-Carlo抽样法在边坡可靠性分析中的应用研究  

Application research of Monte-Carlo sampling method in slope reliability analysis

作　　者：马晓东 简俐 MA Xiao-dong;JIAN Li(Second Institute Geological and Mineral Exploration of Gansu provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Lanzhou 730020)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省地矿局第二地质矿产勘查院

出　　处：《矿产勘查》2019年第7期1738-1742,共5页Mineral Exploration

摘　　要：针对复杂边坡可靠性分析时,功能函数具有高度非线性和隐式表达的特性,为克服传统边坡可靠性分析解决此类问题的不足,将Monte-Carlo重要抽样与响应面法相结合,利用响应面法实现边坡极限状态函数的显式表达,并确定设计验算点,以该点为新的抽样中心应用Monte-Carlo重要抽样计算边坡的失效概率。通过两个算例进行了分析,结果表明:该方法在保证精度的同时提高计算效率,适于解决含有大量随机变量的复杂边坡工程可靠性分析。For the reliability analysis of complex slopes,the functional function has the characteristics of high nonlinearity and implicit expression.To overcome the shortcomings of traditional slope reliability analysis to solve such problems,Monte-Carlo important sampling and response surface method are combined.-Using the response surface method to realize the explicit expression of the limit state function of the slope,and determining the design checkpoint,and using this point as the new sampling center to calculate the failure probability of the slope by Monte-Carlo important sampling.The analysis is carried out by two examples.The results show that the proposed method improves the computational efficiency while ensuring the accuracy,and is suitable for solving the reliability analysis of complex slope engineering with a large number of random variables.

关 键 词：边坡 Monte-Carlo重要抽样 响应面法 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]