“丝绸之路经济带”视域下中国与沿线国家木质林产品贸易——基于引力模型的实证研究  

The Trade of Woody Forest Products between China and the Countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt——An Empirical Study Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：吴天博[1] 田刚[1] WU Tianbo;TIAN Gang

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2019年第11期77-87,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国城市空间扩展非协调性及其匹配融合机制设计”(41501173)

摘　　要：本文以"丝绸之路经济带"为研究背景,基于2001-2017年的木质林产品贸易数据,分析了中国与沿线国家木质林产品贸易现状及特征,运用拓展引力模型对中国对沿线国家木质林产品贸易的影响因素及潜力进行了分析。研究表明:经济总量、人口规模、森林资源人均禀赋差异、贸易开放程度、互为邻国对双边贸易流量的增长产生推动作用。两国的空间距离及同为APEC成员对双边贸易的影响不显著。中国与沿线大部分国家木质林产品贸易潜力属于潜力巨大型,合作空间巨大。基于实证分析所得出的结论,在把握"丝绸之路经济带"建设内涵的基础上为我国木质林产品贸易的发展提出了相应政策启示,我国应在继续推进"五通"建设的前提下,稳定现有市场,并积极开拓南亚、东欧及西欧的市场。Based on the data of wood forest products traded from 2001 to 2017,this paper analyzed the current status and characteristics between China and the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt,and revealed the influencing factors and potential of China’ s wood forest products trade to the countries along the line by using the extended gravity model under the background of the Silk Road Economic Belt. The results show that: The value of import and export of woody forest products has been increasing year by year,but the differences are obvious;The influencing factors show different roles that the factors of economic aggregate,population size,per capita endowment of forest resources,degree of trade openness and the countries that belong to mutual neighboring countries have positive promotions,while the factors of the spatial distance between the trade country and two countries that belong to the same APEC member are not significant;There exists a huge potential and cooperation space of China’ s wood forest products trade to the countries along the line is huge. This paper put forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestion on long-term development of China ’ s wood forest products trade with the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from the following aspects of continually promoting the construction of the "Five Links"( policy communication,facility connectivity,smooth trade,accommodation of funds,people-to-people bond),improving the trade environment,stabilizing the existing market,and actively exploring the markets of South Asia,Eastern Europe and Western Europe.

关 键 词：“丝绸之路经济带” 影响因素 贸易潜力 引力模型 

分 类 号：F746.2[经济管理—国际贸易]