外交访问、进口挤出与企业福利  

Diplomatic Visits,Imports of Extrusion and Welfare of Enterprises

作　　者：何祚宇 梁晓慧 陈勇兵[3] HE Zuoyu;LIANG Xiaohui;CHEN Yongbing

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院 [3]厦门大学经济学院,361005

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2019年第11期88-99,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“企业层面全球价值链的研究:指标测度、理论机制与中国经验”(71703170);国家自然科学基金面上项目“GVC视角下多维贸易成本及其第三国效应:指标测度、理论拓展与经验分析”(71973155);国家自然科学基金青年项目“本地市场效应与服务贸易增长的内生动力研究:理论、机制与中国经验”(71603285);国家社会科学基金重大项目“培育国际竞争新优势与建设开放型世界经济的内生动力研究”(18VSJ046);教育部人文社科规划基金项目“中国贸易关系的持续时间及其在贸易政策调整中的应用”(13YJA790152)

摘　　要：外交访问对企业进口并非简单的促进作用,而是存在非常复杂的作用机制。本文运用2000-2006年的海关数据,考察了外交访问对企业进口的影响。在实证中,设定了一个双重差分模型,并为处理组和对照组构建了一个未经处理的过去,以排除外交访问在企业层面的自选择效应。结果表明:当在企业-进口国层面考察问题时,外交访问对国有企业的进口产生了短暂的促进作用,对非国有企业的进口产生了显著且持续的挤出效应,同时外交访问引致非国有企业退出市场的概率高于国有企业;机制分析显示贸易条件的变化可能是引致进口挤出的原因;当把视角转换到企业层面对企业福利进行考察时,受到外交访问冲击的非国有企业为抵消贸易条件的不利影响可以灵活地调整进口方向,从而提高了企业利润;国有企业由于将有限资金投入到访问国的进口从而为非国有企业空出了其他进口市场,其利润并未有显著的变化。The effect of diplomatic visits on import of companies is not only simply promotion,but has very complicated functions and mechanisms. This article used the customs data from 2000 to 2006 to examine the impact of diplomatic visits on business imports. In the empirical study,we set up a difference-in-difference model and constructed an unprocessed past for the treatment group and the control group to rule out the self-selection effect of diplomatic visits at the firm level. When examining issues at the enterprise-importing level,this paper finds that diplomatic visits have a temporary boosting effect on the imports of state-owned enterprises,and have produced significant and sustained crowding-out effects on the imports of non-state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile,we find that the probability of non-state-owned enterprises exiting the market is higher than state-owned enterprises. The analysis of the mechanism shows that changes in trade conditions may be the cause of the import squeeze. When the perspective is switched to the corporate level to examine corporate welfare,this paper finds that non-state-owned enterprises that are hit by diplomatic visits could flexibly adjust the direction of imports in order to offset the adverse effects of trade conditions,thereby increase corporate profits. However,state-owned enterprises’ profits have not made significant changes because they have invested limited funds in the imports of visiting countries,vacated other import markets for non-state-owned enterprises.

关 键 词：外交访问 企业进口 挤出 贸易条件 企业福利 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]