人口年龄结构与居民储蓄率的关系研究  

The Research on the Age Structure of Population and the Savings Rate of Residents

作　　者：胡勤芝 张迎春 HU Qin-zhi;ZHANG Ying-chun(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第4期125-131,共7页Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(批准号：17ATJ002)资助

摘　　要：根据29个省份1995~2017年的面板数据,并考虑横截面相关性,运用面板数据协整分析方法,考察人口年龄结构与居民储蓄率之间的关系。研究结果表明,人口年龄结构对居民储蓄率有着长期影响;不论在长期还是短期过程中,不同年龄阶段人口变动对居民储蓄率的影响截然不同,少年儿童抚养比增加对储蓄具有促进作用,老年人口增加则对储蓄具有抑制作用;人口年龄结构与居民储蓄率之间的关系存在明显的地区差异,表明年龄人口变动对储蓄的影响具有个体异质性。根据以上结论,在全国层面放开二胎政策有利于优化人口结构,稳定经济发展,但是各省要因地制宜的实施生育政策。Based on the panel data of 29 regions from 1995 to 2017,it was used panel data co-integration analysis method to analysis the relationship between population age structure and saving rates considering cross-sectional correlation.It was shown that,the savings rate of residents was affected by the age structure of population over a long period of time;whether in the short or long term,the savings was effected positively by the increase of the proportion of children and adolescents,while the savings was effected negatively by the increase of the elderly population;the relationship between population age structure and per capita savings rate was differ from every single regions,showing that individual heterogeneity of the impact of age population on savings.In light of these conclusions,the policy of having a second child is conducive to optimizing the population structure and helpful for stabilizing economic development,but when provinces implement it,they should take measures according to local conditions.

关 键 词：少年儿童抚养比 老年抚养比 居民人均储蓄 

分 类 号：F222.34[经济管理—国民经济]