基于SD法的湖南省土地利用碳排放情景方案设定与仿真模拟  

Scenario Setting and Simulation of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Hunan Province Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：陈紫君 赵先超 倪筱珈 CHEN Zijun;ZHAO Xianchao;NI Xiaojiao(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou Hunan 412007,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学城市与环境学院

出　　处：《湖南工业大学学报》2019年第6期67-74,共8页Journal of Hunan University of Technology

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金资助项目(17YJCZH258);湖南省社会科学基金资助项目(17JD25);湖南省社会科学评审委课题基金资助项目(XSP19YBZ142);湖南省研究生科研创新基金资助项目(CX2018B738)

摘　　要：设定湖南省土地利用碳排放情景方案,并以此探求碳排放增长演化规律。基于系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)原理与方法,统筹考虑经济、能源、土地利用、人口等因素对湖南省土地利用碳排放的影响作用,构建湖南省土地利用碳排放SD模型,并设定趋势发展等7种情景方案进行动态仿真模拟。按照趋势发展情景,2017-2030年湖南省土地利用碳排放量将由7648.8万t增长至11217.8万t,年均增长率为3.33%;比较其余6种政策情景,基于技术进步和能源结构优化的情景,到目标年土地利用碳排放量比趋势发展情景分别减少了206.4万t和517.5万t,年均增长率分别为3.17%和2.89%;在综合调控情景中,目标年土地利用碳排放量较趋势发展情景减少了560.6万t,减排效果最为显著。A scenario setting has been made for the land-use carbon emissions in Hunan Province,followed by an inquiry made into the growth evolution for carbon emissions.Based on the principle and method of system dynamics(SD),with a consideration given to the effects of economy,energy,land use and population on land-use carbon emissions in Hunan Province,SD model of land-use carbon emissions in Hunan Province is to be constructed,with seven scenarios,including trend development,set up for the dynamic simulation.According to the trend development scenario,the land-use carbon emissions in Hunan Province will increase from 76.488 million tons to 112.178 million tons in 2017-2030,with an average annual growth rate of 3.33%.Compared with the other six policy scenarios,and based on the scenarios of technological progress and energy structure optimization,the land-use carbon emissions of in the target year are to be reduced by 2.064 million tons and 5.175 million tons,respectively,with an average annual growth rate of 3.17%and 2.89%.With all the policies integrated in a control scenario,the land-use carbon emissions in the target year are to decrease by 5.606 million tons compared with the trend development scenario,with its emission reduction effect the most significant.

关 键 词：土地利用碳排放 情景方案 仿真模拟 系统动力学 湖南省 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]