基于蒙特卡罗的复杂火工系统可靠性预计精度研究  

Research on Reliability Prediction Accuracy of Complex Initiators System Based on Monte Carlo

作　　者：付东晓[1] 张国兴[1] 张蕊[1] 李芳[1] 都振华[1] 麻宏亮[1] 平川[1] FU Dong-xiao;ZHANG Guo-xing;ZHANG Rui;LI Fang;DU Zhen-hua;MA Hong-liang;PING Chuan(Science and Technology on Applied Physical Chemistry Laboratory,Shaanxi Applied Physics and Chemistry Research Institute,Xi’an,710061)

机构地区：[1]陕西应用物理化学研究所应用物理化学重点实验室

出　　处：《火工品》2019年第5期29-32,共4页Initiators & Pyrotechnics

摘　　要：针对蒙特卡罗方法进行复杂火工系统可靠性预计过程中存在误差的问题,分别从串、并联系统,元件组成 数量以及蒙特卡罗方法参数 3 个方面开展研究。结果表明:蒙特卡罗方法的可靠度计算误差可采用串联系统进行评价, 尽量减少系统中的随机抽样元件个数,提高抽样数量可提高可靠度的计算精度,重复计算次数可使计算结果趋于稳定, 并且单个元件抽样统计值控制可显著降低计算误差。In order to solve the problem of error in the reliability prediction process of complex initiators system for Monte Carlo method,the reliability prediction calculation is studied from three aspects:series and parallel system,component quantity and Monte Carlo method parameters.The results show that Monte Carlo method reliability calculation error can be evaluated by series system,and the number of random sampling components in the system should be minimized,as well as increasing the number of samples.Meanwhile,the number of repetitions of Monte Carlo method can make the calculation result stable,and the single-element sampling statistical value control has a very significant effect on reducing the calculation error.

关 键 词：火工系统 可靠性预计 蒙特卡罗 计算精度 

分 类 号：TJ450.2[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]