基于VAR模型的国内木材价格金融化实证研究  

Empirical Study on Domestic Timber Price Financialization Based on VAR Model

作　　者：许小天 朱海星[1] XU Xiao-tian;ZHU Hai-xing(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2019年第6期44-47,共4页China Forestry Economics

摘　　要：木材作为一种资源性商品,传统经济学理论认为其均衡价格单纯地由供给与需求决定。以胶合板期货为对象,运用VAR模型对其与几种主要金融指标之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:国内木材价格近年金融化程度加大,并且美国CME木材期货价格与人民币兑美元汇率对其影响最大,之后依次为消费物价指数CPI、广义货币供应量M2、原油价格、利率等变量。基于以上结论,提出了加强监管以减少投机资本冲击、加强期货市场与现货市场联系和提高国内木材供应等建议。Wood is a resource commodity. Traditional economic theory holds that its equilibrium price is simply determined by supply and demand. The paper used the VAR model to empirically analyze the relationship between it and several major financial indicators, taking the plywood futures as the object. The results showed that the financialization of domestic wood price has increased in recent years, and the CME wood futures price and the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar have the largest impact on it, followed by CPI, M2, crude oil price, interest rate and other variables. Finally, this paper put forward some suggestions which based on the above conclusions, such as strengthening supervision to reduce the impact of speculative capital, strengthening the connection between futures market and spot market, increasing domestic timber supply.

关 键 词：木材 金融化 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]