上海市养老服务产业发展的不平衡性状况研究——基于投入产出模型的产业关联性分析  

The Research of Imbalance on Elderly Service Industry Development to Shanghai——Correlation Analysis Based on Input Output Model

作　　者：艾慧[1] 郭得恩 Ai Hui;Guo De'en(Center for Economic Research of Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444)

机构地区：[1]上海大学马克思主义学院经济研究中心

出　　处：《上海经济》2019年第6期41-56,共16页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题《上海市居家养老服务供求错配及公共财政支出效率研究》（2016BJL001）;教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目《农民工市民化利益权衡及财政补贴支付的合理化区间研究》（17YJA790001）

摘　　要：本文立足于上海市人口老龄化的背景,将养老服务产业划分为狭义和广义两类。结合产业结构理论从狭义的养老服务产业出发,对养老服务产业与其他产业的关联性及波动效应进行了定量分析,发现上海市养老服务产业发展不平衡,养老服务产业对相关产业具有较强的关联性,但是受区域经济的拉动作用较弱。通过分析养老服务产业面临的问题及问题产生的原因,本文提出合理制定产业发展规划并落实到位、厘清政府职责加快市场化进程、优化产业布局发挥区域优势、加强对企业家和老年人的政策宣传、培育专业人才并通过科技替代人工等建议。Based on the background of the aging of population in Shanghai, this paper firstly divides the elderly service industry into the narrow sense and the broad sense. Combines the theory of industrial structure from the narrow sense of elderly service industry, and carries on the quantitative analysis for elderly service industry and other industries and the correlation of fluctuations effect. It shows that the elderly service industry development of Shanghai is unbalanced, and elderly service industry has strong dependence for the related industries but less affected by the role of the national economy. Finally, puts forward policy suggestions, including establishing reasonable industry development plan and putting in place, clarifying the government responsibility to speed up the marketization process, optimizing the industrial layout and playing regional advantages, strengthening the policy promotion to entrepreneur and the elderly, cultivating professional talents and using technology instead of artificial, etc.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老服务产业 产业结构 投入产出分析 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]