基于STIRPAT模型的天津市水环境污染影响因素分析  

Analysis of Affecting Factor on Water Environment Pollution in Tianjin Based on STIRPAT Model

作　　者：史芳 包景岭[1] 李燃 SHI Fang;BAO Jing-ling;LI Ran(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Tianjin Environmental Protection Science Research Institute,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]天津市环境保护科学研究院,天津300401

出　　处：《环境监测管理与技术》2019年第6期64-67,共4页The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring

基　　金：国家科技重大专项水体污染控制与治理专项基金资助项目(2017ZX07107-001-001)

摘　　要：基于拓展的STIRPAT模型,利用岭回归分析方法,以天津市2006—2016年COD值及其相关社会、经济、人口数据为例,分析人口、城市化水平、经济发展、技术水平、产业结构、用水结构对水环境污染的影响。研究表明:工业GDP占比的提高是导致水环境污染的最主要原因,人口、城市化率、人均GDP、排放强度和生活用水占总用水比例的提升都是引起水环境污染加重的因素,通过技术创新可以控制水污染。Based on extended STIRPAT model and taking COD emissions and related society,economy and population in Tianjin from 2006 to 2016 as examples,this thesis adopted the ridge regression analysis method for analyzing the impact of population,urbanization level,economic development,technical level,industrial structure and water consumption structure on water pollution.The research showed that the increase in the share of industrial GDP was the most important cause of water pollution.The increases of population,urbanization rate,per capital GDP,emission intensity and the share of domestic water in total water consumption were all the aggravating causes of water pollution,indicating that water pollution could be controlled through technological innovation.

关 键 词：水环境污染 STIRPAT模型 影响因素 天津市 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]