虚拟科学与大IT革命：支撑未来学的快速崛起  

Virtual Science and Big IT Revolution:Underpin the Rapid Rise of Futurology

作　　者：刘益东[1] Liu Yidong(Institute for the History of Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院自然科学史研究所

出　　处：《未来与发展》2019年第10期1-8,共8页Future and Development

摘　　要：当今社会发展迅速、急剧变化,人们对未来发展研究有着迫切需要,但是专门负责研究未来的未来学却发展迟缓。根本原因是未来学的研究对象尚未实际存在、尚未实际发生,超出了实证科学的适用范围,而能突破这一瓶颈的新型研究范式一直没有问世。作为第5种研究范式的虚拟科学的出现,使得这种局面发生了转机。加之大IT革命营造的信息技术系统支持环境,使得新型未来学的出现具备了方法条件和技术条件。科技大爆发与致毁知识不可逆增长,导致人类社会发展不能继续依靠经验和试错,人类安全成为头等大事,不能继续以"先发展、后治理,先创新、后伦理"的方式发展,要实行"科技创新、风控先行",在科技重大风险问题上,人类不能再犯不可逆转的错误,人类必须从"经验-试错"社会进入"预演-试错"社会。未来学因此肩负着前所未有的重大使命,也迎来了快速崛起的新机遇。本文对基于虚拟科学的以"预演-试错"为特征的虚拟预演未来学进行了初步探讨,提出第3种未来观作为其未来观,指出在虚拟科学和大IT系统的支持推动下,在社会迫切需求的拉动下,广义的未来研究与作为学科的未来学都将快速发展和崛起。As today’s society is developing and changing rapidly, people possess urgent demand for the study of future development. Yet the development of futurology, which focuses on the research of the future, is relatively slow. Its primary cause is that the objects of futurology have not yet come into existence or occurrence, exceeding the scope of positive science. However, new research paradigm to solve this problem didn’t come out for a long time. This situation has been changed by virtual science, the fifth research paradigm. Furthermore, the IT system supporting environment brought about by the big IT revolution provides the advent of new futurology with methodological and technological conditions. Due to the outburst of science and technology and the irreversible increase of ruin-causing knowledge, the development of human society could no longer rely on experience or trial and error. Human’s safety has become the most important issue. The development pattern of "treatment after expansion, ethics after innovation" should be replaced by that of "risk control in advance of S&T and innovation". In light of major S&T risks, man must stop making irrevocable mistakes and transfer from "experience-trial" society to "rehearsal-trail" one. Thus futurology takes on unprecedentedly huge responsibilities and foresees opportunities for rapid development. This paper illustrates virtual preview futurology featured with rehearsaltrail based on virtual science, with the third futurological view as its conception. It points out that with the support of virtual science and big IT system, together with the pull of the society’s appeal, both futurological study in broad sense and futurology as a discipline will witness their speedy growth and rise.

关 键 词：虚拟科学 大IT革命 致毁知识 “预演-试错”社会 虚拟预演未来学 第3种未来观 人类安全 科技大爆发 科技重大风险 文化科技 研究与编导 

分 类 号：C93-0[经济管理—管理学]